Similarities Between Sports Betting and Poker

Many of you are probably familiar with Jonas Gjelstad’s background in poker, as he has been successful in both sports trading and playing cards. For those of you who are interested in similarities between sports betting and poker, in this article we have covered for you the similarities between betting and poker and also pointed out where these endeavours differ from each other. Let’s jump right into it!


The skill element is hidden in both sports betting and poker

Unlike in games like chess where you can clearly see skill differences of the players, in poker and betting you can never be 100% sure how big your edge actually is. In the short-term, making unprofitable bets or playing bad poker might lead to good results – this is why pretty much all poker players and sports bettors have a biased view on their actual skill level. If you’re too stubborn, you might just curse your bad luck and not make any analysis on why you lost, while good players and bettors are always looking for ways to improve, no matter if their results have been good or bad lately.

Both betting and poker require discipline and patience

Although the nature of betting and poker are different in the way that you need discipline, mostly due to the fact that in betting you have virtually no time limit on making the bet placement decisions until the event starts, while in poker you are under constant time pressure, both endeavours need a great amount of patience if you want to become successful. In betting this means that sometimes you might not find profitable opportunities to bet on and you need to pass match after match until you notice a clear pricing mistake. In poker you might not find good games for a while, or you might simply be card dead in a great game and need to just fold hand after hand and watch others play.

Pro Poker Player Phil Hellmuth in action.

Pro Poker Player Phil Hellmuth in action.

Betting and poker can both be fun recreational activities

Live poker or betting on a sports events and watching the game with your friends can both be fun activities for relaxing and socialising while enjoying the thrill of the game. If you’re mostly betting or playing poker as a recreational player to enjoy it, you should be careful that you’re following a budget and not let it take over your life. While these activities can be quite fun, they’re pretty addictive and therefore should be enjoyed in moderation – unless you’re a professional with a proven track record, in which case you should probably spend a lot of time in pursuing your craft and improving further.

Which is more profitable, poker or sports betting?

The profitability of both poker and sports betting depend on many factors, but mostly comes down to your skill edge. You can make good money in both if you have the proper skill set. In poker this means the less mistakes you make and the more mistakes your opponents make, the more profitable it’s going to be. In sports betting the more pricing mistakes there are in the markets that you can spot, the more profitable you will be. 


Is bankroll management in sports betting similar to poker? 

There are too many great sports bettors and poker players who have gone broke due to ignoring bankroll management, which is one of the key areas you should take seriously in both pursuits. Whether you’re a bettor or a poker player, you should take advantage of the Kelly Criterion or some form of bankroll management that has at least the following qualities:

1. It ensures your odds of risk of ruin are relatively small

2. It ensures your edge is maximised by risking more when the odds are heavily in your favour or you’re a big favourite at the poker table you’re currently playing

3. It ensures you have peace of mind so that you can make the best decisions possible without worrying about monetary outcomes and variance too much

The third part can be quite hard for both sports bettors and poker players – some people might never be able to get comfortable with the bigger swings that eventually occur when you start to play for higher stakes, especially if these stakes are so significant that they well and truly exceed the money needed for a normal life. In this case, it’s better to pass up some of your edge by playing a little bit smaller, as constantly thinking about the money that is involved and what it represents in real life can lead to poor decisions in both betting and poker.

How does finding value differ in sports betting and poker?

The fundamental difference here is that in betting you are mainly looking for pricing mistakes in the markets based on your own models and calculations on the true odds of a certain game or event. On the other hand, in poker you are mainly looking for good games where the other players are weaker players with leaks in different areas of the game, which leads to them making more mistakes than you make. Additionally, in online poker you can also find value in certain promotions, like tournament or cash game leaderboards available at different poker sites – they might significantly boost your overall winnings.

Finnish poker player Henri Koivisto. Source: Pokerisivut.

Finnish poker player Henri Koivisto. Source: Pokerisivut.

Pro’s comments: 

Tip number 1: Always place the bets where you can find the highest odds for the event. This alone will boost your return% more than any available information. Just like in poker, you want to play in games with the smallest possible rake, biggest rakeback and/or weak players.

Tip number 2: Due to smaller edges, the variance in betting is even greater than in poker. Therefore you should apply a very strict bankroll management in betting. Many winning players go broke if their BRM is not in place right from the start. 

Tip number 3: The next season for the major leagues are just around the corner, and you can make some money in NHL/NBA/Premier league in the beginning of the season just by applying logical reasoning. For example, there might be two teams playing with equal strength, but the first won has been winning 8/10 matches and the other one just 2/10 – the odds will reflect their recent performance, and you have a clear value bet on the ‘underdog’ here. 

Tip number 4: In my experience the best games in poker occur during the night time so I prefer playing at that time. In betting timing is also crucial: the majority of bettors will bet on overs until the start of the match, which presses down those odds. This means, you should bet on favourites and overs as soon as the odds odds are published and you find value in them, and consider leaving the bets on unders and underdogs to the last minute.

Tip number 5: News regarding team forms are crucial info and you can’t get an edge on knowing a great player is missing from a match if everyone already has that info. Or, perhaps you can in case the market overreacts here, which frequently happens – then you can bet against the crowd. The same thing applies to poker, as we aim to exploit population tendencies that are non-optimal.

Tip number 6: Experience will sharpen your skills in both poker and betting. Therefore, you should be ready to pay your dues, even if it means losing in the beginning. Very rarely will someone be a crusher right from the start, but as we gain more experience, everything is possible as we are playing against other humans.

I hope you’ve gained some insights from my tips that you can apply in your own game – have fun while playing and studying more about betting & poker!

-Henri, Beasts Of Poker Pro team

Twitter: Henri Koivisto


Whether you like to bet on sports or play cards, there’s always more to learn as the room for improvement as a player or a bettor is practically limitless. Both require the same type of characteristics and share some common principles that you can utilise to gain a mathematical edge against the competition. We wish you the best of luck, both at the tables and in wagering!

About the author:

Beasts of Poker is a team of poker loving entrepreneurs and a group of poker professionals who share a common vision: to help and inspire players in the game that we love. Get inspired by our lifestyle section or chat with the pros in the forum at by visiting Beasts Of Poker website.

Check out our article on How To Go From a Winning Poker Payer To a Profitable Sports Bettor.

Check out Jonas Gjelstad on the Joe Ingram Poker Life Podcast.

How To Make Money From Arbitrage Betting On Sports

Do you want to learn how to make a guaranteed profit from your Sports bets? THIS ARTICLE WILL TEACH YOU WHAT ARBITRAGE BETTING IS AND HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY FROM IT.

To be able to utilize Arbitrage (also called arbing) in Betting, any bettor must understand what lies behind the concept of “free money” and be able to spot situations where opportunities present themselves. In addition, it is important to realize that there are certain risks connected with arbitrage betting. People who do arbitrage betting are commonly referred to as arbitrage bettors or arbers.

The strategy surrounding arbitrage betting is built on the foundation of earning money without risking anything and making a guaranteed profit from the trade.

In short, arbitrage betting is about finding odds at different bookmakers, which when combined will lead to a margin that works in the favor of the bettor rather than the bookmaker. When the margin sides with the bettor, a profit is guaranteed. This is if the bettor is able to stake the different bets correctly.

This ultimately means that you need to calculate the margin and stake your bet properly to have the possibility of creating a bet that will give you a profit, independent of the game outcome.

How to calculate Arbitrage winnings in a two-way market, such as in football, where a draw is not a possibility.

How to calculate Arbitrage winnings in a two-way market, such as in football, where a draw is not a possibility.

How do we calculate the margin in a two-way market?

The calculation of the margin and the exploitation of this, is essential to put yourself in a position where it is possible to make money, no matter which way the game and the bet goes. Therefore, it is critical to know what numbers to look for, and how to put them together.

In the examples below, the bet will be on the home-team to win at bookmaker A and the away-team to win at bookmaker B.

The formula for calculating the margin of a two-way-bet (only two different outcomes are possible) is as follows;

(1 / Decimal odds of home-team on bookmaker A) * 100  


(1 / Decimal odds of away-team on bookmaker B) * 100

Subtract this number from 100, and the margin will appear. If the number that appears is positive the bettor has the advantage, and if it is negative the bookmaker has the advantage.

How to stake your bet properly in a two-way market?

Finding the margin of the Arbitrage Bet is only half of the job done, as we also need to stake the Bet correctly in order to ensure that the profit will be the same. This will be the case if the home- or away-team wins.

The formula for calculating the correct stake at each bookmaker of a two-way-bet is as follows;

Home-team to win at bookmaker A = (Combined stake between the two bets * Probability of winning according to bookmaker) / Market margin

Away-team to win at bookmaker B = (Combined stake between the two bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin 

The approach described with regards to margin and stake for the two-way market applies to sports where there are two possible outcomes. Examples of sports where a draw is not a possibility is tennis, basketball and ice-hockey.

However, there are a number of sports where there are three possible outcomes of a game, with the most popular being football. Therefore, it is a valuable trait to possess the knowledge of how to find the margin and stake bets properly in three-way markets as well.

How do we calculate the margin in a three-way market?

The possible outcomes of a game in a three-way market is a Home-win, a Draw and an Away-win. This means that the bettors must, especially, distribute the stake of the bet to yet another bookmaker. This complicates the calculations a tiny bit, but the premise of the formula still remains the same.

In the examples below, the bet will be on the home-team to win at bookmaker A, a draw at bookmaker B, and on the away-team to win at bookmaker C.

The formula for calculating the margin of a three-way bet is as follows;

(1 / Decimal odds of home-team on bookmaker A) * 100

(1 / Decimal odds of a draw on bookmaker B) * 100

(1 / Decimal odds of an away-team win on bookmaker C) * 100 

Once again, subtract this number from 100, and the margin will appear. If the number that appears is positive the bettor has the advantage, and if it is negative the bookmaker has the advantage.

How to stake your bet properly in a three-way market?

Now that you have found the margin of the bet, it is equally important to stake the bet in a three-way market, as it was in the two-way market.

The formula for calculating the correct stake at each bookmaker of a three-way-bet is as follows;

Home-team to win at bookmaker A = (Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

A draw at bookmaker B = (Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

Away-team at bookmaker C = Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

The three different stakes on the three different bets will ensure the bettor a profit in total, and will reward the bettor with the definition of what Arbitrage Betting is.  

If this was a little confusing, do not worry! Below are more specific examples of how to calculate both margins and stakes in two- and three-way markets.

Example of an Arbitrage Bet in a two-way market

Imagine a tennis match between two of the worlds greatest players, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. To be able to use Arbitrage Betting on the match, we need two separate bookmakers, bookmaker A and bookmaker B.

How to calculate Arbitrage Winnings in a tennis-match.

How to calculate Arbitrage Winnings in a tennis-match.

The odds for Djokovic to win at bookmaker A is 1,58.

The odds for Federer to win at bookmaker B is 3,54.

The bettor decides to stake $200 combined.

To begin the analysis of the Arbitrage Bet, it is once again, important to look at the margin of the bet;

Djokovic at bookmaker A = (1 / 1,58) * 100 = 63,29


Federer at bookmaker B = (1 / 3,54) * 100 = 28,25

When this is combined, it totals at (63,29 + 28,25) = 91,54.

To find the Margin, we subtract the total from one hundred (100-91,54) = 8,46 %

Now that we have the Margin at hand, it is necessary to calculate what the stakes of the bet should be, and where they should be placed;

Djokovic at bookmaker A = (200 * 63,29) / 91,54 = $138,28

Federer at bookmaker B = (200 * 28,25) / 91,54 = $61,72

Finally, we can see how much the profit will increase and decrease with the different results and scenarios (table below), and understand how the profit in this case is guaranteed.

Arbitrage Betting Article Picture Outcome 2-way.png

From the table above, it is clear that when Djokovic wins, the bettor gains a profit. This is because the stakes and the winning odds outweigh the stakes placed on the opponent.

The same thing happens when Federer wins, even though the stakes lost are higher. This means that the winning odds also must be higher.

It is also clear that the stakes are correct, as the profits match each other almost completely, only missing each other by one cent.

This is fairly easy to understand, but is a little more complex when we add another outcome and another bookmaker to the equation. But once again, do not worry! Just keep reading, and it will all be explained below.

Example of an arbitrage bet in a three-way market

Now that the tennis-match has played out, the attention turns to a soccer-game in the Premier League between Chelsea and Manchester City, where there has been added an outcome. In this match, there is a possibility of drawing the game, meaning that the game can end with a Chelsea-win, a draw and a Manchester City-win.

How to calculate the Arbitrage winnings in a soccer match.

How to calculate the Arbitrage winnings in a soccer match.

We have three bookmakers; bookmaker A, bookmaker B, and bookmaker C.

The odds for Chelsea to win at bookmaker A is 4,80.

The odds for a draw at bookmaker B is 3,40.

The odds for Manchester City at bookmaker C is 2,90.

The bettor decides to stake $300 combined.

To begin, we will try to find the margin of the bet;

Chelsea to win at bookmaker A = (1 / 4,80) * 100 = 20,83


A draw at bookmaker B = (1 / 3,40) * 100 = 29,41


Manchester City to win at bookmaker C = (1 / 2,90) * 100 = 34,48

When this is combined, it totals at (20,83 + 29,41 + 34,48) = 84,73.

To find the Margin, we subtract the total from one hundred (100-84,73) = 15,27%

Now that the Margin is calculated, we will seek to find the right stake sizes at each individual part of the bet;

Chelsea to win at bookmaker A = (300 * 20,83) / 84,73 = $73,75

A draw at bookmaker B = (300 * 29,41) / 84,73 = $104,13

Manchester City to win at bookmaker C = (300 * 34,48) / 84,73 = $122,08

A table is located below, calculating the different profits and losses from each different outcome of the match. This will showcase how the profit is a guarantee.

Arbitrage Betting Article Picture Outcome 3-way.png

The table shows that the bettor gains the largest win when Chelsea wins, but as this is where the bettor places the most money on the other two options, the profit is no higher than the other profits.

When a draw occurs, the total profit is at a maximum, one cent higher than the second-highest profit.

When Manchester City wins, the table shows the lowest winning numbers, but combined with the lowest stakes on the other options, the profit stays roughly the same as with the other two outcomes.

The regularity in the profits gives a clear indication that the bet is staked correctly, even though the alternative of outcomes- and number of bookmakers grow.  

Hopefully these explanations and examples have helped you understand the calculations behind Arbitrage Betting.

Now it is time to gain a better insight into why these opportunities arise, some risks involved in this type of betting, and lastly some hints and tips to look for in Arbitrage Betting.

Why do these opportunities present themselves?

It is important to understand that these chances do not occur all the time, and might be difficult for the un-trained eye to spot, but comes along once in a while, especially if you know what to look for. If the bettor is guaranteed a profit, that means that the bookmakers are guaranteed to lose money. So why do these professional bookmakers let this happen?

Well, there are a few explanations for it;

- The bookmaker is currently doing a special promotion of a team or a result, leading to opportunities for the observant bettor.

- The bookmakers simply differ in opinion. This is fairly common, as different bookmakers have different systems for picking winners and odds. This might be the most common reason as to why Arbitrage becomes a possibility.

- The Bookmaker makes a mistake, or has a system that does not allow for quick transition of odds. Our odds arrive by the second, and therefore it will be possible to explore these opportunities (?). If a bookmaker swaps the home and away odds, this can be deemed as a palpable error and the bet voided. Which is one of the factors that does not make arbitrage betting 100% risk free. More on this in cancelled bets below.

The guarantee of a profit sound like an enticing opportunity. However, there are certain situations of risk that should be identified and noted, as they could lead to a decrease in profits or creating a situation where the surplus is non-existent.

Different risks and mistakes to look out for in Arbitrage Betting

There are a number of things to look out for when betting in general, but some of the pitfalls out there are a little more specific to Arbitrage Betting than other areas. The most common ones are;

Complicated to understand

- This might be obvious when considering everything stated above in the article, but is nevertheless an important point of emphasis. Make sure to understand the concept of Arbitrage before deciding to explore any of the opportunities that present themselves. It is not enough to spot the opportunities where Arbitrage can be put to practice, the bettor must also have the capability to stake the bets correctly.

- In addition to understanding the calculations of it, the bettor must also have a large number of bookmakers at hand, to be able to find odds that are high enough to cover each other.

- To benefit from Arbitrage Betting, the bettor must invest a lot of time to find the opportunities out there.

Cancelled bets

- Bookmakers have the opportunity to cancel bets where they have made a mistake. If one of the bookmakers in a bet cancels, the bettor has still invested in the other outcomes, and is left exposed in one of the outcomes. This might leave you with a large loss of profits, and set you back of a large sum.

- To prevent this from happening, read the rules of your bookmakers and avoid obvious mistakes. E.g. the bookmaker swapping the home and away odds of Manchester City vs Brighton in the Premier League.

Limitations and Closure of Accounts

- Stake limitations at some bookmakers might prohibit the bettor from staking the bets correctly, which is a big problem, and exposes the premise of Arbitrage Betting.

- Some bookmakers also prohibit Arbitrage Bettors to bet at their sites, as they do not fit their profile, and mostly cost them a lot of money. Remember – if done correctly and without problems, the bettor will always gain a profit.

Time Constraints

- All bookmakers are concerned with updating their odds as frequently as they can manage, and although some are quicker than others, the opportunities present themselves in a tight window, with regards to time. Some opportunities may only last for seconds, as bookmakers often base their odds on other bookmakers.

- As time is a critical factor in Arbitrage Betting, errors will occur as well. This means that Arbitrage Betting might not be as simple in practice as it is in principle.

Bankroll Management

- Generally, a large bankroll is required to have the possibility of Arbitrage Betting, as it is required to have a large number of bookmakers and to have available funds in those accounts at all times, to be able to bet in a market that changes by the second.

Smaller Returns Than Usual

- As Arbitrage Betting guarantees a profit if done correctly, one might expect a very large return for all the hard work. However, it is normal that the avg. return on investment per bet is close to 1% over time. It is necessary for the bettor to understand this. To increase the potential profits, the bettor might increase the total stakes of the bet, although this will increase the risk and losses if something goes wrong (for example one of the above).

Value betting, the superior alternative to arbitrage betting

Before beginning with arbitrage betting you should seriously consider doing value betting instead. There are 3 main reasons for why we prefer value betting over arbitrage betting, and why we built a value betting software instead of an arbitrage betting software.

  1. Value bets yield a higher avg. ROI per bet, the avg. ROI per bet of an arb is 1-2%. The avg. ROI per bet of a Trademate customer doing value betting on the European bookmakers is 2.6%.

  2. Arbitrage bets are not risk free in practice, due to the problems listed above. And in practice you sacrifice ROI to reduce your risk compared to value betting.

  3. Value bets occur more frequently than arbitrage bets —> Higher potential profits

  4. Value bets are harder for the bookmakers to spot —> Increased lifetime at the bookie before you get limitations.

Further resources on Arbitrage Betting, Value Betting and also Matched Betting (a form of arbitrage betting using promotions).

  1. This article explains what a value bet is and how they occur.

  2. This video shows how you can use Trademate Sports to find value bets.

  3. This article explains the difference between a value bet and an arbitrage bet

  4. This article discusses the pros and cons of arbitrage betting vs value betting and matched betting.

  5. This article is written by the experienced Danish arbitrage bettor Vida and why he switched from arbitrage betting to value betting.

6 Tips on Arbitrage Betting

If you do decide that arbitrage betting is the thing for you, we have 6 final tips to read;

  1. Be extremely thorough in your gathering of information, as changes in odds occur every second and will impact your bet, one way- or another. As the profit margins are very tight, this point cannot be stressed enough.

  2. To make sure that the odds are what you remembered them to be it might be wise to double-check all sides of the odds before placing any kind of bets.

  3. As there are a high level of bookmakers and a large amount of money spread throughout different accounts, it is important to have a system that can track your progress. Creating a spreadsheet with all information and numbers is never a bad idea.

  4. Make sure you have understood the concept and calculations of Arbitrage Betting before you begin.

  5. Understand that the returns might not be very high, that it is time-consuming and that it is a complex system.

  6. Read the rules of your bookmakers and do whatever you can to avoid getting limited and having your account closed.

How to bet? The 10 Step Trademate Guide to Improve Your Betting

Here are some key concepts you should know about, educational resources, tools and practical steps you can take to improve your betting.

1. Find value from odds deviations at bookmakers.

Different bookmakers offer different odds, which are possible to exploit through value bets. What a value bet is and how they occur is covered in these articles

2. Start with clearing signup bonuses on the soft bookmakers.

The majority of soft bookmakers offer bonuses with a turnover requirement, e.g. a 10x. You can use arbitrage to clear these bonuses. For instance let’s say you are betting on an Over / Under in a basketball game. Bookie A offer 2.05 in odds on an over, while Bookie B offers a 2.05 in odds on under. By placing $100 on each side, you have a surebet with a guaranteed profit of 2.5%. [ 1 / (1/2.05 + 1/2.05)]. Remember that you’re goal is to clear the bonus, so you can go break even by taking 2.0 and 2.0 or even go slightly below. Just make sure that your bonus is large enough to justify taking bets with a slightly negative expected value.

3. Know that “tipsters” who are profitable would never give away their advice for free.

Most tipster make money from affiliate deals with bookmakers where they get money if you use their links to sign up to the bookmaker site or by getting a percentage of losses made by bettors. If a tipster has an actual edge or inside information they will act upon this themselves. Only once they have taken a position in the game will they be willing to give up this information. The result being that they get better odds than you. For instance if a tipster recommends Troy at home versus South Florida in the NCAA at 1.75. They could take an earlier position at 1.80. Once people start following their advice and the market drops to let’s say 1.65 they can take a bet on the other side to make a surebet. Most tipster also don’t want to give away their track record and for the once that do, there is no guarantee that they have not simply deleted some of the bets they have lost. For the tipsters who actually do show you their full track record, the sample size is often very low. If they only place 250 bets a season for example their results will mainly be down to luck. There are two good articles on Pinnacle, which covers how to evaluate tipsters track records and survivorship bias.

4. Don’t bet on accumulators.

This article covers the maths behind why were created to make you loose a lot of money

5. Not having a staking strategy.

Even if you are placing profitable trades, without a correct staking strategy, variance could wipe you out. So what does a profitable staking strategy look like? Well there’s two options you can deploy profitably. A flat stake, and a proportional stake.With a flat bet size, you either put the same wager on every single game, or you put the same wager on games that have the same odds and edge. Flat bet sizing is fairly easy to use, but it's hard to select a proper size. A size too big will increase the chance of going broke, while a size too low will not yield big enough profits.A proportional strategy is where you place a certain percentage of your current bankroll on each bet. Kelly's Criterion is a formula that maximizes the growth rate of your bankroll. You should be aware that following the Kelly Criterion is high risk. You can reduce your risk by following for instance 30% of whatever the Kelly Criterion tells you to. I’ve also made a video where I explain the Kelly Criterion and how to apply it in betting.

Alternatively you can read this article about bankroll management using the Kelly Criterion for sports betting.  

6. Know how bookmakers work and measure by whether you are able to beat Pinnacle or the closing lines of the other sharp bookmakers.

You can read about the closing line here. 

7. Not tracking performance or analysing your game.

Lack of knowledge and analysis of your performance against the bookmakers is one of the biggest factors in not becoming a profitable long-term sports trader. Whether you are a poker player or day trader, keeping track of your results enables you to determine whether your strategy is working and whether you are running good or bad. This can in turn enable you to change your strategy for the better. When trading sports you should measure your performance versus the closing lines of the sharp bookmakers. If you are able to consistently place bets where you get better odds than the bookmakers closing lines you should be profitable in the long term.

8. If you are profitable at the soft bookmakers you will be limited.

This article covers some tips to make you stay under the bookies radar and make your accounts last longer. In this section you can find interviews with industry insiders and their advice for avoiding limitations

9. Market liquidity = information

The bookmakers employ top sports experts and data scientists who take in huge amounts of information on everything from lineups, injuries and team form to place their initial odds line. In other words, information is used to calculate the probability of let’s say Arsenal beating Tottenham this weekend. One of the best sports traders in the world is Tony Bloom, the owner of Brighton Football Club and the betting syndicate Starlizard ( According to Business Insider, Starlizard employs 160 workers who spend their day crunching statistics and building their own computer models for calculating the odds of sporting events, e.g. Arsenal winning. To run a company of Starlizard’s size and pay all the employees, the betting size and volume needs to be huge, in the range of hundreds of thousands to millions of pounds per bet. If they believe that the bookmaker are giving odds of 2.0, when their own calculations say that the true probability of Arsenal winning is 1.9. They will bet a large amount on any odds above 1.9, causing the odds to drop until it reaches 1.9. It is not possible to place large bets on the soft bookmakers, so the professionals perform their betting at the sharp bookmakers who offer higher stake limits on games. Once the odds goes down on one side, it will inevitably rise on the other. So now the odds of a draw or away win could be at 3.40 and 3.90 respectively. Now, someone else might believe that there is value to be had by betting on an away win based on the information they possess. They will then place a bet on Tottenham to win, shifting the odds line again. Eventually the odds line will reach equilibrium, where no-one is willing to place any more money on any of the game’s outcomes. If you are going to place $1 million on the outcome of a game, you better make sure that you get it right, if not you will go out of business over time. This also implies that when someone is willing to place such high stakes on a game, they possess information that suggests that this is a profitable bet. Thus one can draw the conclusion that the more money is placed on a game (liquidity) is equal to information. Watching and analysing these high-liquidity markets, allows you to follow big movers such as Tony Blom. Essentially giving you access to their positions and information.

10. Some good free tools and resources are:

This article covers some good free tools and resources to improve your betting.


Rookie Mistake #1 in Sports Betting: Accumulator Betting

Accumulator betting is generally a terrible idea. There are some exceptions to this rule, but 9 times out of 10 you should run a million miles from accumulator betting. The reasons are simple. Your hunch bet, which on average is losing 10% of your stake every bet, compounded with another 3 hunch bets, is actually making you lose on average 34% of your stake.

For example, let’s say you place a £10 on a 4 leg accumulator at 60 in odds. The bookmaker is essentially saying this will happen 1 time every 60 times. However, you should be getting odds of 91 (average payback at 90% giving 0.9^4 = 0.6561, 60/0.6561 = 91.45). That means the bookmaker has an edge of 34% over you.

Doesn’t sound very fair does it? That’s why bookmakers are spending millions on advertising accumulators

Don't bet on accumulators

Don't bet on accumulators