This type of middling is the most valuable as there is no chance of loss, but they can be quite difficult to find. To illustrate positive middling, we’ll use an Asian Handicap betting situation. For positive middling to work, you need to find a market where two bookies intersect and the staking has been calculated to ensure a profitable return. Below is a hypothetical example of a game between Liverpool and Norwich and the four possible outcomes.

Liverpool (-2 goals) 1.90 @ Bookie X (Stake $51.5 for a $46.35 profit)

Norwich (+3 goals) 2.25 @ Bookie Y (Stake $43.5 for a $54.37 profit)

You can not lose when placing a Positive Middle bet.

Liverpool win by less than 2 goals, game is drawn or Liverpool lose.

You lose the (-2) bet at Bookie X

You win the (+3) bet at Bookie Y

Profit = $54.37 - $51.5 = $2.87

Liverpool win by more than 3 goals

You win the (-2) bet at Bookie X

You lose the (+3) bet at Bookie Y

Profit = $46.35 - $43.5 = $2.85

Liverpool win by exactly 2 goals

Your (-2) bet for Liverpool is refunded at Bookie X

You win the (+3) bet for Norwich at Bookie Y

Profit = $0 + $54.37 = $54.37

Liverpool win by exactly 3 goals

You win the (-2) bet for Liverpool at Bookie X

Your (+3) bet for Norwich is refunded at Bookie Y

Profit = $46.35 + $0 = $46.35

This type of middling is more risky as most of the time you will lose a small percentage of your outlay, but there is a small chance of both bets winning, meaning huge profits. See our example below using an Over/Under market (assuming we put $100 on each bet).

Bookie X - Real Madrid vs Barcelona Total Goals = Under 3.5 goals @ 1.90

Bookie Y - Real Madrid vs Barcelona Total Goals = Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90

Total goals scored in the game is 4 or more

Your bet with Bookie Y (Over 2.5 goals) wins - $100 x 1.90 = $90 profit

Your bet with Bookie X (Under 3.5 goals) loses = $100 loss

Profit = A loss of $10

Total goals scored in the game is 2 or less

Your bet with Bookie Y (Over 2.5 goals) loses = $100 loss

Your bet with Bookie X (Under 3.5 goals) wins - $100 x 1.90 = $90 profit

Profit = A loss of $10

Total goals scored in the game is 3

Your bet with Bookie Y (Over 2.5 goals) wins - $100 x 1.90 = $90 profit

Your bet with Bookie X (Under 3.5 goals) wins - $100 x 1.90 = $90 profit

Profit = $90 + $90 = $180

Let’s take a look at how useful this method of betting is, in other words, how often do you need the middle to land in order to break-even. If you won your first ever middle bet you pocket $180, which means if you lose the next 18 bets you can sustain the $180 (assuming the odds and staking are the exact same every 18 bets). So, if this middle bet lands more than once every nineteen games, your strategy has a positive expected value.

This type of middling is the opposite to negative middling, to obtain a profit you want the Asian Handicap or the Over/Under to fall outside of the middle. Polish Middling is perhaps the most dangerous type of middling as there is a chance you can lose both of your bets, but there is a greater chance you will earn a small profit. See our example below (assuming we put $100 on each bet).

Liverpool (-3.5 goals) 2.25 @ Bookie X

Norwich (+2.5 goals) 2.25 @ Bookie Y

Polish Middling is like backing a 1.125 favourite.

Liverpool win by 4 or more goals

You win the (-3.5) bet at Bookie X

You lose the (+2.5) bet at Bookie Y

Profit - $125 - $100 = $25

Liverpool win by 2 or less goals, draw, or lose

You lose the (-3.5) bet at Bookie X

You win the (+2.5) bet at Bookie Y

Profit - $125 - $100 = $25

Liverpool win by exactly 3 goals

You lose the (-3.5) bet at Bookie X

You lose the (+2.5) bet at Bookie Y

Profit = A loss totalling $200

Just like we did with Negative Middles, let’s take a look at how useful this method of betting is. If you lost your first ever middle bet you lose $200, which means you would have to win your next eight bets to retrieve your $200 (assuming the odds and staking are the exact same every eight bets). So, if your bet hits the middle more than once out of every nine games, your strategy has a negative expected value.

It’s definitely worth it if there is considerable disagreement in the market between bookies. But bettors need to remember that betting a Negative Middle is the equivalent of backing a long shot, and betting a Polish Middle is the same as putting your money on a 1.125 favourite.

If you’re looking for some assistance in placing middle bets, try OddStorm or Rebelbetting to give you some help.

Check out some of our other articles similar to this one:

Try trademate ]]>A push occurs when the result of a sporting event ends as a tie between the sports bettor and the sportsbook.

Neither party wins or loses. Instead, the original wager is refunded to the sports bettor.

Pushes in sports betting is not the worst thing in the world. What’s annoying is that you can spend your time watching the entire game, only to break even. Nevertheless, sports bettors are not punished by sportsbooks for push bets. The full wager is always refunded.

Pushes are the most common in sports that use the point spread like basketball and football but they can also be used in sports like ice hockey and baseball in terms of over/under betting.

Imagine there was an upcoming NHL game between the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames. Now, as part of an NHL picks card, imagine a sports bettor was to bet that both teams would combine to score more than 5 goals.

The push comes into play if, at the end of the game, exactly 5 goals were scored.

If the bet was made and exactly 5 goals were indeed scored, the bet pushes and the bettor would receive 100% of their wager back.

If a bettor is making a parlay, every event in the parlay must win in order for the bet to win. But what if one of these events is a push? Does the parlay become void?

In most sportsbooks, the answer is no. If a push occurs on one of the events in the parlay, that event is dropped from the parlay entirely.

In essence, it’s as if that event was never selected in the parlay at all. After the event is removed from the parlay, the payout multiplier is adjusted, meaning that the new payout potential is also adjusted.

However, this is not always the case.

Some sportsbooks will count a push as a loss so it’s important to be aware of that sportsbook’s rules and T&Cs before making the play.

Most betting lines on offer do not use whole numbers. Instead, they use half numbers. These betting lines do not have push as an option as half points cannot be scored in any sport.

Going back to the previous example, imagine the total goals scored was over/under 5.5 instead of 5 and let’s say the bettor wagered on the over.

If 6 or more goals are scored, the bet wins. If 5 or fewer goals are scored, the bet loses. Half points are a way for sportsbooks to avoid pushes.

At the end of the day, they are in the business of making money and pushes prevent them from doing so.

While sportsbooks look to avoid pushes, bettors benefit from not using them too. After all, while pushes avoid losses, they also prevent wins.

For example, in football, the most common margin of victories are 3 points, 4 points and 7 points. This means that getting a half point on either side of the line can turn a push into a win.

Inside the Trademate Sports products, we classify bets which end as a push as voided. The reason for this is that the outcome of both these instances are the same. That the original wager is refunded to the sports bettor. So instead of having to different classifications it’s simpler to just count them both as void.

This Article was written by Ghostbettingtips!

]]>The most intuitively easy bet to understand is where two people put in the same amount of money on an event, where you either double your money or lose it. This is typically for events with around 50% chance of happening, like a coin toss.

Let’s say we have two people: Andrew and Bobby. They want to bet on a coin toss, and they are friends, so they want it to be fair. Both of them are putting in 100 dollars, Andrew on heads and Bobby on tails. If heads, Andrew will double his money winning 100 dollars from Bobby. If tails, Bobby will double his money winning 100 dollars from Andrew. This implies an odd of 2 for both of them which correlates well with the true probability of a coin toss, which is 50% for both heads and tails.

In practice people rarely bet on coin tosses or games where the odds are 2 on both sides of the bet. So let’s use a different example next before we explain how it relates to sports betting.

Andrew who are really good at hitting the crossbar, wants to take it up a notch and wants to bet with Bobby if he hits the crossbar or not. But Andrew can hit the crossbar often, 4 out of 5 times, or 80% of the time. This means that he misses 1 out of 5 shots, or 20% of the shots he takes. Since Andrew hits more often than 50%, it would be unfair to Bobby if they both went in with 100 dollars where the winner takes all.

For this to be fair, they need to adjust their stake sizes. For them to find the correct stake sizes they need to find the correct odds, which reflects the probability. To get the odds from the probability, we use the inverse (1/probability) and the odds of Rob hitting the crossbar would be:

1/(4/5) = 1.25.

While the odds of him missing would be:

1/(1/5) = 5.

If you are wondering why the odds equals the inverse of the probability of the event, be sure to check this article out.

Andrew would also this time ask Bobby what odds he would give him if he were to bet 100 dollars. Bobby knows his stuff so he gives Andrew the **odds of 1.25**. This would mean that Andrew would bet 100 dollars and has a potential profit of 25, while Bobby would bet 25 dollars with the potential profit of 100 dollars. The reason to adjusting the stake sizes is so it would reflect the odds which is similar to the underlying probability as we explained in the article about odds. To clarify, **odds is just a way of adjusting stake sizes in a bet between two parties to reflect the underlying probability.**

In sports betting, it is important to understand that it is always **two sides of a bet**. And because people rarely bet on coin tosses, or events with the exact same probability, the odds are usually not the same for both sides of the bet. The two sides of the bet are called **backing **and **laying**. Andrew is **backing **himself hitting the crossbar, while Bobby is **laying **the bet that Andrew is hitting the crossbar.

If you have ever bet on a bookmaker site, you would be **backing **different outcomes like home win, draw or away win. In these cases, **the bookmaker would always be laying bets against the bet you are backing**. For clarity, laying bets means to bet on any event **not to happen**.

Laying bets with two outcomes is easy to understand, as laying one side of the bet means backing the other outcome. The difficulty often arises when we have 3 or more outcomes. If we use football as an example, the usual thing to bet on is full time match winner. This consists of three outcomes: home win, draw and away win.

In this case;

1. Laying a home win would mean backing draw **and **away win.

2. Laying a draw would mean backing home win **and **away win.

3. Laying an away win would mean backing home win **and **draw.

**SIDE NOTE**: More advanced readers would also notice that instead of backing a home and draw by having two separate bets on home and draw one could place an asian handicap (AHC) +0.5 on the home team. If you are unfamiliar with AHC bets, this article explains what an Asian Handicap Bet is and how it works to bet on them.

Take some time and think of how this applies to a bookmaker and what really happens when you bet 100 dollars on Liverpool to win at home with 1.2 odds?

This would mean that the bookmaker thinks that it is 1/1.2 = 0.8333 = 83.33% chance that Liverpool would win or a chance of 1-0.8333 = 0.166666 = 16.66% that Liverpool were to **not win. **This would mean that the bookmaker bets 20 dollars on draw **and**away win with the odds of (1/0,16666 = 6) against your 100 dollars on the home win! If this is hard to understand think back to Andrew and Bobby’s crossbar challenge.

If you would think this through the probability for **not home win **should be the same as the probability for **away win and draw**. The same goes for the odds. Let us start by showing you an example with the total probability equalling 1.

Let us see how this works with a random football match with three outcomes. We have the corresponding odds and probability like this:

The probability for not H is 1 - (1/2.5) = 1 – 0.4 = **0.6**

The probability for U and B is 1/4 + 1/2.86 = 0.25 + 0.35 = **0.6**

We now know that there are two sides of every bet and what this really means. Now we need to separate **practice from theory **and look at how it works when you bet against a bookmaker.

Let us start with the coin toss. As we can see the odds are balanced with the probability since the probability for both heads and tails are 1/2 and the odds are 1/(1/2) = 2. The balance is showed with the colour blue.

If we go from a coin toss to a crossbar challenge where Andrew is hitting the ball, the underlying probability changes. If the odds do not change, we would have a positive value bet on one side of the bet. We would have positive value on the backing side, while there would be negative value on the laying side. We can see this in the picture, green corresponding with positive value while red means negative value. The true odds for the event would be 1.25 for a hit and 5 for a miss, while we would get the odds of 2 for either outcomes. There would be positive value betting on Andrew hitting with 2 in odds because the odds are higher than what the underlying probability suggests.

What the different symbols mean.

Here we have the balanced-out odds of the crossbar challenge between Andrew and Bobby. As we can see the odds given is the same as the true odds from the underlying probability. This would be fair odds and would essentially mean that Andrew and Bobby would break even in the long term. These examples are as applicable to real sports events as they are to a crossbar challenge, so let us switch from a crossbar challenge (hit/miss) to a random football game (home win/not home win) using the same odds.

In reality, putting up odds equalling the underlying probability for every bet can be challenging. So, let us see what happens if the odds are slightly wrong compared to the probability. Here the odds are adjusted to 1,33 and 4, while the probability still suggests odds of 1,25 and 5. This will give you positive value if you were to bet on home win, while laying home win would give you negative value.

For this example, we see that the positive value and negative value just switch places, making laying the bet the preferred choice. As we can see from these two examples, if a bookmaker would operate with odds that reflects a total probability of 1, they would need to hit the exact probability every time. Or else they would risk giving away an edge, it just depends on which side of the bet the edge is on. So, what do bookmakers do to mitigate for this risk factor? Well, the answer is simple; **they make the stick bigger**.

This picture shows the difference between the true probability and the corresponding odds as well as how a bookmaker operates. They basically calculate their odds from a total probability of more than what is theoretically possible. This will give them more wiggle room for the odds which will make it easier to put up odds with a positive edge for them. In other words, they use the margin to protect themselves from the uncertainty that exists when trying to predict the true odds.

**Essentially, this will overvalue the probability, while undervaluing the odds consistently over time.**

But, how can we find value now, when they are always providing less odds than what is probable? Well, we find it when the blue double arrow goes outside the yellow area on the picture. Then the odds would be either higher than 5 for laying home win or higher than 1.25 for backing home win.

In this picture we clearly see that in order to get an overvalued bet, in this case a home win, the bookmaker would need to overestimate the probability of the contrary by a lot. They still do this, and when we find these kinds of bets we would have an **edge **over the bookie. This is what Trademate do for you, finding edges on thousands of events. To understand how this works, check out this article.

It is really important to understand that there are **two sides to every bet** and every bet should be looked at as a **tug of war. **The one who get the better value than the true probability wins in the long term, so be sure to be on the right side of the bet. Trademate provide you with all the right tools to do this.

Andrew and Bobby.

In most places related to sports and betting you will see the odds of a team winning rather than the probability. The reason you will see odds instead of probability, is because the odds tells you how much you would be winning if you placed a bet on a given odds. E.g. if you bet 100 on 2.00 in odds, you would be returned 200 if you won. One could have used probability instead to describe how likely it was that you would win the bet. But then it would not be as clear how much you’d win if you bet $100. The relationship between odds and probability is that odds = the inverse of the probability (odds = 1 / probability). If one is betting on the true margin free odds of a bet with 2 outcomes, e.g. a coin flip, you would expect to break even in the long run independent of which side of the bet you chose. Let’s use an example to show that this is true.

We use the example with Andrew and Bobby. Andrew (A) wants to bet with Bobby (B) if he hits the crossbar or not. Historically he hits 4 out of 5 times and misses 1 out of 5 times. This would give the corresponding odds of 1/(4/5) = **1.25 for a hit** and 1/(1/5) =** 5 for a miss**. Andrew wants to bet 100 dollars on himself hitting the bar, so he then asks Bobby what odds he can give him. Bobby knows the math so he says he can give him an odd of 1.25.

Andrew have now bet 100 dollars on the odds of 1.25 giving him potential return of: 125 dollars or a profit of 25 dollars.

Bobby have now bet 25 dollars on the odds of 5 giving him potential return of: 125 dollars or a profit of 100 dollars.

Andrew and Bobby with the crossbar.

If they were to do this over a period of time, let’s say 5 times, based on the probability it should go like this.

In a sample size like this of only 5 kicks to hit the crossbar, this would generally not happen because the variance (or standard deviation) is too high. But when you do this over a large sample size, say he is kicking the ball 100 000 times, the variance becomes smaller and the probability that is reflected in the odds correlates much better with the probability for the real events. If this is confusing you should read more about the law of large numbers.

**It is important to notice that they would break even only for events where the odds and probability relates to each other 1 to 1.**

Bobby gets a downgrade in IQ.

Bobby now gets a downgrade in IQ, so he does not understand the math. Andrew then asks again what odds Bobby can provide if he wants to bet 100 dollars. Bobby says he would give him **1.5 for hitting the crossbar**, essentially **giving himself the odds of 3**. These odds relate to each other 1 to 1, because the probability in total equals 1:

1/1.5 = 0.667 while 1/3 = 0.333

0.667 + 0.333 = 1

But, The odds do not relate 1 to 1 with the underlying probability. If the odds were to relate to the probability, we would give the odds of 1.25 and 5 as in the last example. Let’s see what happens with 1.5 and 3 in odds:

Andrew is still betting 100 dollars with a potential return of: 150 dollars or a profit of 50 dollars.

Bobby is betting 50 dollars with a potential return of: 150 or a profit of 100 dollars.

As we can see A wins, while B loses in the long term. This is because the odds of him hitting the bar is overvalued (or the underlying probability is undervalued) while the odds of him missing is undervalued (or the underlying probability is overvalued). When the probability is undervalued it means that the event happens **more often than the probability suggests as reflected in the odds**.

How overvalued and undervalued odds and probability works together.

But then you might want to ask: But no sports match is the same, so how is this applicable to the real world? Well, over a vast amount of games there is large evidence for the probability to be reflected in the odds. If you want to read more about it, check this article out.

Odds and probability are **in theory **really just two sides of the same coin, but **in practice **the case is different. This is because (soft) bookmakers usually offer unfair odds, which do not reflect the underlying probability. This is the way the bookmakers make money, so it is important to understand that **the odds at the bookmakers almost never reflect the underlying probability. **

To be able to utilize Arbitrage (also called arbing) in Betting, any bettor must understand what lies behind the concept of “free money” and be able to spot situations where opportunities present themselves. In addition, it is important to realize that there are certain risks connected with arbitrage betting. People who do arbitrage betting are commonly referred to as arbitrage bettors or arbers.

The strategy surrounding arbitrage betting is built on the foundation of earning money without risking anything and making a guaranteed profit from the trade.

In short, arbitrage betting is about finding odds at different bookmakers, which when combined will lead to a margin that works in the favor of the bettor rather than the bookmaker. When the margin sides with the bettor, a profit is guaranteed. This is if the bettor is able to stake the different bets correctly.

This ultimately means that you need to calculate the margin and stake your bet properly to have the possibility of creating a bet that will give you a profit, independent of the game outcome.

How to calculate Arbitrage winnings in a two-way market, such as in football, where a draw is not a possibility.

The calculation of the margin and the exploitation of this, is essential to put yourself in a position where it is possible to make money, no matter which way the game and the bet goes. Therefore, it is critical to know what numbers to look for, and how to put them together.

In the examples below, the bet will be on the home-team to win at bookmaker A and the away-team to win at bookmaker B.

The formula for calculating the margin of a two-way-bet (only two different outcomes are possible) is as follows;

(1 / Decimal odds of home-team on bookmaker A) * 100

+

(1 / Decimal odds of away-team on bookmaker B) * 100

Subtract this number from 100, and the margin will appear. If the number that appears is positive the bettor has the advantage, and if it is negative the bookmaker has the advantage.

Finding the margin of the Arbitrage Bet is only half of the job done, as we also need to stake the Bet correctly in order to ensure that the profit will be the same. This will be the case if the home- or away-team wins.

The formula for calculating the correct stake at each bookmaker of a two-way-bet is as follows;

Home-team to win at bookmaker A = (Combined stake between the two bets * Probability of winning according to bookmaker) / Market margin

Away-team to win at bookmaker B = (Combined stake between the two bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

The approach described with regards to margin and stake for the two-way market applies to sports where there are two possible outcomes. Examples of sports where a draw is not a possibility is tennis, basketball and ice-hockey.

However, there are a number of sports where there are three possible outcomes of a game, with the most popular being football. Therefore, it is a valuable trait to possess the knowledge of how to find the margin and stake bets properly in three-way markets as well.

The possible outcomes of a game in a three-way market is a Home-win, a Draw and an Away-win. This means that the bettors must, especially, distribute the stake of the bet to yet another bookmaker. This complicates the calculations a tiny bit, but the premise of the formula still remains the same.

In the examples below, the bet will be on the home-team to win at bookmaker A, a draw at bookmaker B, and on the away-team to win at bookmaker C.

The formula for calculating the margin of a three-way bet is as follows;

(1 / Decimal odds of home-team on bookmaker A) * 100

+

(1 / Decimal odds of a draw on bookmaker B) * 100

+

(1 / Decimal odds of an away-team win on bookmaker C) * 100

Once again, subtract this number from 100, and the margin will appear. If the number that appears is positive the bettor has the advantage, and if it is negative the bookmaker has the advantage.

Now that you have found the margin of the bet, it is equally important to stake the bet in a three-way market, as it was in the two-way market.

The formula for calculating the correct stake at each bookmaker of a three-way-bet is as follows;

Home-team to win at bookmaker A = (Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

A draw at bookmaker B = (Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

Away-team at bookmaker C = Combined stake between the three bets * Probability of winning according to the bookmaker) / Market margin

The three different stakes on the three different bets will ensure the bettor a profit in total, and will reward the bettor with the definition of what Arbitrage Betting is.

If this was a little confusing, do not worry! Below are more specific examples of how to calculate both margins and stakes in two- and three-way markets.

Imagine a tennis match between two of the worlds greatest players, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. To be able to use Arbitrage Betting on the match, we need two separate bookmakers, bookmaker A and bookmaker B.

How to calculate Arbitrage Winnings in a tennis-match.

The odds for Djokovic to win at bookmaker A is 1,58.

The odds for Federer to win at bookmaker B is 3,54.

The bettor decides to stake $200 combined.

To begin the analysis of the Arbitrage Bet, it is once again, important to look at the margin of the bet;

Djokovic at bookmaker A = (1 / 1,58) * 100 = 63,29

+

Federer at bookmaker B = (1 / 3,54) * 100 = 28,25

When this is combined, it totals at (63,29 + 28,25) = 91,54.

To find the Margin, we subtract the total from one hundred (100-91,54) = 8,46 %

Now that we have the Margin at hand, it is necessary to calculate what the stakes of the bet should be, and where they should be placed;

Djokovic at bookmaker A = (200 * 63,29) / 91,54 = $138,28

Federer at bookmaker B = (200 * 28,25) / 91,54 = $61,72

Finally, we can see how much the profit will increase and decrease with the different results and scenarios (table below), and understand how the profit in this case is guaranteed.

From the table above, it is clear that when Djokovic wins, the bettor gains a profit. This is because the stakes and the winning odds outweigh the stakes placed on the opponent.

The same thing happens when Federer wins, even though the stakes lost are higher. This means that the winning odds also must be higher.

It is also clear that the stakes are correct, as the profits match each other almost completely, only missing each other by one cent.

This is fairly easy to understand, but is a little more complex when we add another outcome and another bookmaker to the equation. But once again, do not worry! Just keep reading, and it will all be explained below.

Now that the tennis-match has played out, the attention turns to a soccer-game in the Premier League between Chelsea and Manchester City, where there has been added an outcome. In this match, there is a possibility of drawing the game, meaning that the game can end with a Chelsea-win, a draw and a Manchester City-win.

How to calculate the Arbitrage winnings in a soccer match.

We have three bookmakers; bookmaker A, bookmaker B, and bookmaker C.

The odds for Chelsea to win at bookmaker A is 4,80.

The odds for a draw at bookmaker B is 3,40.

The odds for Manchester City at bookmaker C is 2,90.

The bettor decides to stake $300 combined.

To begin, we will try to find the margin of the bet;

Chelsea to win at bookmaker A = (1 / 4,80) * 100 = 20,83

+

A draw at bookmaker B = (1 / 3,40) * 100 = 29,41

+

Manchester City to win at bookmaker C = (1 / 2,90) * 100 = 34,48

When this is combined, it totals at (20,83 + 29,41 + 34,48) = 84,73.

To find the Margin, we subtract the total from one hundred (100-84,73) = 15,27%

Now that the Margin is calculated, we will seek to find the right stake sizes at each individual part of the bet;

Chelsea to win at bookmaker A = (300 * 20,83) / 84,73 = $73,75

A draw at bookmaker B = (300 * 29,41) / 84,73 = $104,13

Manchester City to win at bookmaker C = (300 * 34,48) / 84,73 = $122,08

A table is located below, calculating the different profits and losses from each different outcome of the match. This will showcase how the profit is a guarantee.

The table shows that the bettor gains the largest win when Chelsea wins, but as this is where the bettor places the most money on the other two options, the profit is no higher than the other profits.

When a draw occurs, the total profit is at a maximum, one cent higher than the second-highest profit.

When Manchester City wins, the table shows the lowest winning numbers, but combined with the lowest stakes on the other options, the profit stays roughly the same as with the other two outcomes.

The regularity in the profits gives a clear indication that the bet is staked correctly, even though the alternative of outcomes- and number of bookmakers grow.

Hopefully these explanations and examples have helped you understand the calculations behind Arbitrage Betting.

Now it is time to gain a better insight into why these opportunities arise, some risks involved in this type of betting, and lastly some hints and tips to look for in Arbitrage Betting.

It is important to understand that these chances do not occur all the time, and might be difficult for the un-trained eye to spot, but comes along once in a while, especially if you know what to look for. If the bettor is guaranteed a profit, that means that the bookmakers are guaranteed to lose money. So why do these professional bookmakers let this happen?

Well, there are a few explanations for it;

- The bookmaker is currently doing a special promotion of a team or a result, leading to opportunities for the observant bettor.

- The bookmakers simply differ in opinion. This is fairly common, as different bookmakers have different systems for picking winners and odds. This might be the most common reason as to why Arbitrage becomes a possibility.

- The Bookmaker makes a mistake, or has a system that does not allow for quick transition of odds. *Our odds arrive by the second, and therefore it will be possible to explore these opportunities (?).* If a bookmaker swaps the home and away odds, this can be deemed as a palpable error and the bet voided. Which is one of the factors that does not make arbitrage betting 100% risk free. More on this in cancelled bets below.

The guarantee of a profit sound like an enticing opportunity. However, there are certain situations of risk that should be identified and noted, as they could lead to a decrease in profits or creating a situation where the surplus is non-existent.

There are a number of things to look out for when betting in general, but some of the pitfalls out there are a little more specific to Arbitrage Betting than other areas. The most common ones are;

- This might be obvious when considering everything stated above in the article, but is nevertheless an important point of emphasis. Make sure to understand the concept of Arbitrage before deciding to explore any of the opportunities that present themselves. It is not enough to spot the opportunities where Arbitrage can be put to practice, the bettor must also have the capability to stake the bets correctly.

- In addition to understanding the calculations of it, the bettor must also have a large number of bookmakers at hand, to be able to find odds that are high enough to cover each other.

- To benefit from Arbitrage Betting, the bettor must invest a lot of time to find the opportunities out there.

- Bookmakers have the opportunity to cancel bets where they have made a mistake. If one of the bookmakers in a bet cancels, the bettor has still invested in the other outcomes, and is left exposed in one of the outcomes. This might leave you with a large loss of profits, and set you back of a large sum.

- To prevent this from happening, read the rules of your bookmakers and avoid obvious mistakes. E.g. the bookmaker swapping the home and away odds of Manchester City vs Brighton in the Premier League.

- Stake limitations at some bookmakers might prohibit the bettor from staking the bets correctly, which is a big problem, and exposes the premise of Arbitrage Betting.

- Some bookmakers also prohibit Arbitrage Bettors to bet at their sites, as they do not fit their profile, and mostly cost them a lot of money. Remember – if done correctly and without problems, the bettor will always gain a profit.

- All bookmakers are concerned with updating their odds as frequently as they can manage, and although some are quicker than others, the opportunities present themselves in a tight window, with regards to time. Some opportunities may only last for seconds, as bookmakers often base their odds on other bookmakers.

- As time is a critical factor in Arbitrage Betting, errors will occur as well. This means that Arbitrage Betting might not be as simple in practice as it is in principle.

- Generally, a large bankroll is required to have the possibility of Arbitrage Betting, as it is required to have a large number of bookmakers and to have available funds in those accounts at all times, to be able to bet in a market that changes by the second.

- As Arbitrage Betting guarantees a profit if done correctly, one might expect a very large return for all the hard work. However, it is normal that the avg. return on investment per bet is close to 1% over time. It is necessary for the bettor to understand this. To increase the potential profits, the bettor might increase the total stakes of the bet, although this will increase the risk and losses if something goes wrong (for example one of the above).

Before beginning with arbitrage betting you should seriously consider doing value betting instead. There are 3 main reasons for why we prefer value betting over arbitrage betting, and why we built a value betting software instead of an arbitrage betting software.

Value bets yield a higher avg. ROI per bet, the avg. ROI per bet of an arb is 1-2%. The avg. ROI per bet of a Trademate customer doing value betting on the European bookmakers is 2.6%.

Arbitrage bets are not risk free in practice, due to the problems listed above. And in practice you sacrifice ROI to reduce your risk compared to value betting.

Value bets occur more frequently than arbitrage bets —> Higher potential profits

Value bets are harder for the bookmakers to spot —> Increased lifetime at the bookie before you get limitations.

This article explains what a value bet is and how they occur.

This video shows how you can use Trademate Sports to find value bets.

This article explains the difference between a value bet and an arbitrage bet

This article discusses the pros and cons of arbitrage betting vs value betting and matched betting.

If you do decide that arbitrage betting is the thing for you, we have 6 final tips to read;

Be extremely thorough in your gathering of information, as changes in odds occur every second and will impact your bet, one way- or another. As the profit margins are very tight, this point cannot be stressed enough.

To make sure that the odds are what you remembered them to be it might be wise to double-check all sides of the odds before placing any kind of bets.

As there are a high level of bookmakers and a large amount of money spread throughout different accounts, it is important to have a system that can track your progress. Creating a spreadsheet with all information and numbers is never a bad idea.

Make sure you have understood the concept and calculations of Arbitrage Betting before you begin.

Understand that the returns might not be very high, that it is time-consuming and that it is a complex system.

Read the rules of your bookmakers and do whatever you can to avoid getting limited and having your account closed.

**In this article, you will learn and understand a different angle to sports betting you might not have thought about before. **

Imagine a game of any sport. It could be football, basketball, baseball; you name it. Looking at the matchup, one of the two teams immediately jumps out as being the favorite to win the game. Let’s name this “Team A”. The opposing side to Team A would be the underdog, named “Team B”.

The Moneyline (betting strictly on which team wins the game) would normally favor Team A to win the game, as they are seen as the superior team (To get a better understanding of the moneyline, you can watch this video). Betting on Team A would result in a lesser return, due to a lower odds when the probability for a win is high.

At the other hand, the moneyline would indicate that the probability for Team B to win is lower than Team A. The odds would therefore be higher, and would result in a greater return on your bet.

To even out the odds in bets, the bookmakers give a disadvantage to the favorite to win, Team A, and give an advantage to the underdog in the matchup, Team B. This situation is an addition to the already given moneyline, and aims to balance the odds of the particular game.

This is commonly known as being the Point Spread. Just to clarify, the Moneyline, is the Point Spread which is the closest to 50/50 win probability or giving 2.0/2.0 in odds on each of the two teams.

Let’s look at a hypothetical example from a game between the mentioned Team A and Team B in basketball;

Learn how to understand the Point Spread in Sports Betting.

Team A is predicted as the favorite to win the matchup, due to a number of factors, such as form, home-field advantage and injuries to the opponent’s top player. We imagine the odds for a win for Team A to be 1,50. This means that if you win, you get back what you initially put on the game, in addition to 50% of what you originally betted.

The odds for Team B would be much higher, at a level of 2,50. Here, if you win, you would get back what you initially put on the game, in addition to 150% of what you originally betted.

However, when the bookmakers seek to even out the odds, they set up a Spread on the game.

This means that they create a chance for people to bet on the game with a handicap, meaning that Team A has to beat Team B by a certain amount of points, scores or goals, in this case points.

If we say that Team A has a Point Spread of -7,5 it means that they are favored to win by this amount of points. For you to win betting on this Point Spread, Team A must win by 7,5 points or more, practically meaning that they must win by 8 points.

By betting on a Point Spread of -7,5 the odds have risen to a 2,00, because they have to do more than simply just win.

The Point Spread for Team B would be at +7,5. This means that they have been given a head start of 7,5 points, and that they “win” as long as they don’t lose by 8 points or more.

When a team is given an advantage like this, the odds will drop accordingly, and in this case it drops to a level of 2,00.

As it is impossible to score half points, this bet would either be won or lost from a bettor’s perspective.

If the Point Spread is at an even number, for example -3 for Team A and +3 for Team B, one more outcome would be possible. If Team A defeats Team B by exactly 3 points, and evens out the Point Spread, the game would be a no-contest, and your initial investment in the game would return to your account.

Consider using the Point Spread when a team has a monumental advantage over the opposition, and that this advantage outweighs the disadvantage given by the bookmaker. It is also effective in the opposite situation, where the advantage given by the bookmakers for the underdog outweighs the difference in quality between the two teams.

The Point Spread is therefore an opportunity that should be taken advantage of by bettors, and should be considered an alternative to betting strictly on the moneyline of a game.

Click here to watch our videos on the Point Spread.

DO YOU KNOW THE DIFFERENT ODDS TYPES? - We have written articles to explain them:

]]>But, before we go through the specific things to think of when setting up a new account at a bookmaker, we need to establish the single most important rule:

We play by the bookie’s rules.

This implies that we need to be careful when we set up our account and do not give them any reason to withhold our hard earned profits, because they will if they can. The bookies know that people do use them for value betting, arbitrage betting and matched betting they usually have different terms and conditions between them which are crucial to read. This is especially important if you are thinking of using one of the bonuses the bookie is offering.

The 3 proven ways of making money on betting are;

Arbitrage betting

Matched betting

So the bookmakers obviously don’t like it. For the rest of the article please note that we are not affiliated with any bookmakers in any form or way. In fact, the bookies don’t like us as at all, as we help people beat them. For the article we simply had to chose one bookmaker to use as an example and selected on the major European ones (which also has a lot of edges on Trademate).

This article explains the difference between an arbitrage bet and value betting

This article discusses the pros and cons of matched, arbitrage and value betting.

As we can see in the **bonus terms and conditions **at one of the major bookmakers:

Extraction of the **bonus terms and conditions** at one of the major bookmakers

As we see marked in red, the bookie usually reserves the right to do whatever they want with the bonus. If you are to read the general terms and conditions as well, you will see that it is a long list of disclaimers which underlines the importance of always being careful when setting up the account.

Next we will show the signup process at a bookmaker and we start by clicking on the register tab:

This is a typical bookie menu bar.

After you click ‘register’ you will typically get here.

When providing your personal details, be sure to double check that it is the same as in your passport and credit card. Remember, we play by the bookie’s rules, and there should not be any discrepancies that the bookie can catch you on. The **email address **needs to be one you use, because you sometimes need to verify the account through email. This also holds for your **phone number**.

**The address **you use needs to be a place you live, or where you get your bills. You need a piece of paper with both your name and address on for verification purposes when you are withdrawing your money later on. This is to prove that you live where you live, and to make it more difficult for you to have several accounts.

**The mobile number **needs to be in use as the bookie also can use this for verification purposes.

Either you are doing matched betting, arbitrage or value betting you will usually have several betting accounts at once. When it comes to your **password **there is two main approaches:

1. One password for every site. This is easy to track, but leaves you exposed if someone is to find out your password, so choose a nonpersonal difficult one.

2. Different passwords for every site. This can be hard to track, so it can be smart to use a password manager like Lastpass to keep track on all the different passwords. Lastpass is free to use. This will also help you log in to the bookmakers fast, saving essential time when placing value bets.

**Security questions **are rarely something you need to use but be sure to track them if necessary. Bookmakers use this to verify that it is actually you who are doing the betting.

This is maybe the most important part to remember, because if you do not have control on this you could potentially lose money. If you are using a **bonus **provided by the bookmaker, you should read the **bonus terms and conditions **carefully. This will give you all the parameters you need to consider for you to unlock the bonus. It is usually much shorter than the **general terms and conditions **and easier to deal with. Some bookmakers also acquire you to tick off boxes before you make the account for you to be able to get the bonus, so be sure to tick off the appropriate boxes. If you forget this, it is usually not a problem as the bookmakers want you to have the bonus. Customer service can be used if you have any problems and by experience using the chat is the most efficient choice.

Now, that you have made your betting account you need to deposit money. The deposit button is usually the biggest one and should never be hard to find. When you click on it, you will usually get options for how to deposit money (Innskudd = Deposit in Norwegian).

Different types of payment options when depositing on Unibet.

When depositing money there are a couple of things to keep in mind:

1. You do need to withdraw money with the same method as you deposited with in the first place, so keep this in mind. This is usually for money laundering purposes, so it should not be a problem for you unless you are a criminal.

2. Skrill and Neteller deposits will usually mean that you can’t get the bonus. For the bookie this can be a sign that you are a serious player, and you should try to avoid using these methods. If you are to use eWallets, it is important to use the same currency between bookmaker and eWallet as well as your bank account. This is to avoid getting exchange rate fees. This article covers how eWallets work and how you can save money when using them.

3. If you have ticked off the boxes for the bonus, deposited money and then did not receive your bonus, don’t worry! A quick and kind chat with customer service will usually fix the problem.

Therefore, you should try to keep it simple and **use credit cards to deposit money**, this is the preferable way for most people. This will keep you under the radar and keep you away from getting flagged by the bookies. In this article you can read some additional tips on how to reduce your chance of getting limited by the bookies.

It can also be beneficial to have on hand what you need to get verified by the bookie when you are setting up the betting account. There are usually **three things **you need to get verified:

1. Picture of your passport. Be sure that the picture is of good quality and no edges are hidden.

2. Picture of your credit card which is used for deposits. Good quality and no hidden edges also apply here.

3. Picture of certificate of residence (with the address you used when signing up) or a bill with the same address and your name.

These things are needed so you can be verified when you are later doing withdrawals from the bookie. The bookmakers are doing this to minimise the chance of people having several betting accounts. It can be smart to get verified as early as possible because they usually try to hold onto your money as long as they can. This can make withdrawals time consuming exercises and getting verified early can mean saved time and then more profits later on.

Verification can usually be done manually by uploading your documents to the verification tab in the menu. If this is not the case, it is easily done by chatting with customer support. But be careful, this can be a sign of you being a serious professional so it can be an idea to not go out of your way to verify your account at once, unless it’s intuitive.

Some bookies operate with clauses in the terms and conditions that says that if you try to withdraw before your bonus is turned over, they can cancel the bonus and take the money on your account. Be careful and read the at least the **bonus terms and conditions**.

The bookies usually ask for verification when you start a withdrawal process, and some bookies can use weeks verifying you. Therefore, it can be an idea to get verified immediately after signing up. I usually send in my documents as soon as I’ve completed the registration process. After you are verified the bookies might also use some time confirming your withdrawal. I have experience with the withdrawal process taking more than a month, so verifying early can help a lot. There are differences from country to country and some places they ask for verification the moment you set up an account, which should speed up the process.

If you either need the money to do matched betting, acquiring bonuses elsewhere or you are limited by the bookie for value betting or arbitrage it is important to withdraw the money as fast as possible. The things you can do to speed up the process is:

1. Get verified early on.

2. Keep on top of the process by talking to customer support every other day. Keep in mind that they have your money so be nice to them. It is usually beneficial to give them an impression that you are stupid, so keep the language simple and slip in a stupid question or two.

The faster thing goes, the more volume of bets can be made which will generate higher profits either you are doing value betting, arbitrage betting or matched betting. Some tips to make things go faster:

1. Use password managers like lastpass. These will make it easy for you to have safe passwords and keep track of them. It will also provide you with a 1 click login to the different bookmakers you are using.

2. Use apps like Spectacle for Mac to shift and resize browser windows quickly between bookmakers and Trademate Sports.

3. Verify your account early.

4. Be on top of the withdrawal process and email the bookie frequently.

5. Generally remember that we are at the mercy of the bookies, trying to avoid any problems with them at almost all cost.

To conclude, there is one important things to remember:

**We are always at the mercy of the bookies, but as long as you follow these simple steps you should be all right!** There are rarely any big problems with depositing or withdrawing money other than it can take some time. All these tips can seem overwhelming, but they will come naturally to you after a while!

Try Trademate

Odds offered by different bookmakers.

Let’s start with an example: A game between Manchester City and Manchester United on April 17th, 2017. As you can see, different bookmakers offer different odds on the same game.

The reason why this happens is that there are different opinions on what the probabilities are for either of the teams to win or lose.

Bookmakers make money by having a certain margin on each bet we (as bettors) place through their website. Their expected revenue equals their margin multiplied by the number of bets coming through their platform times the amount of money bet on each game.

In every single game bookmakers offer odds for, they make sure to have a mathematical edge against the player. And this margin is what enables them to make money. It is also seen in casinos, if this wasn’t the case, they wouldn’t have a very successful business model.

Example of the real probabilities and offered probabilities

Essentially the bookmakers give themselves this mathematical edge, by offering lower odds than what they actually believe the real probabilities are. Here you have a clear example.

Odds are also another way to express probabilities. The odds are the inverse of probability. So 2 in odds equals a 50% probability of a certain outcome to occur. So, if we divide 1 (the total) by 2, you will get 0,5 or 50%.

There are many services out there that allow you to compare odds offered by different bookmakers, and the majority are free. Sticking to the same game, as you can notice, these two bookmakers have different odds on Home, Draw and Away.

They also have different Payout rates and different margins. Payout rates and margins express the same thing but on a different perspective. If you would like to learn more about concepts, please check out this article.

The bookmaker, in this case, the European bookmaker has a margin of 6.78%, meaning that out of every 100$ spent on this game, $92.22 are paid out to players, and the bookmaker keeps $6.78 for themselves.

On the other hand, the Asian bookmaker is offering in this case higher odds on the home team to win, higher odds for a draw and higher odds for the away team to win.

But the question is **how can Asian bookmakers take such low margins compared to the European bookmakers? **Asian bookmakers and European bookmakers just have different business models, nonetheless, in both cases, each bet placed in a bookmaker has a margin.

Now, this is multiplied by the turnover and this gives them the profit. So turnover can further be broken down into the number of bets times the number of bets.

A bookmaker makes profits by having certain margins on each game and independent of which outcomes the players bet on.

Now because the bookmakers keep this margin means is that in order for a player to be profitable in the long term, they need to have an edge against the house.

How do they decide that the odds or the probability of Manchester City to win is 54.05% and the probability of Manchester United to win is 23.81% and so on?

Some of the bookmakers calculate their odds in-house, so they have odds experts who look at a bunch of different factors and they come up with a number that they are comfortable with as the probability of this team winning.

Now how exactly they do calculate these probabilities that will differ depending on the company or the different odds experts as well.

Some of the factors they take into consideration could be the team's lineups, whether or not there is an injured player on the team, their position in the league table, how well have they been playing lately or their winning streak, losing streak and so on.

So the point with this is not to say exactly which factors and how they weight these factors in order to come up with these probabilities, it's just to point out that there are a lot of different ways to do it and these are some of the inputs that go into these models.

Now, because there are so many different ways and you can think of so many different factors that might have an impact on the teams.

Some examples are that the home team is more likely to win than the away team, past results, if the field is more slippery because it's raining and that might lead to more goals and so forth. All in all there are many possible factors and deciding exactly which of them have an impact and how much impact they have is really difficult.

The good thing nonetheless, it is that there are a lot of different opinions on how to calculate these probabilities, this is why you see that different bookmakers have different thoughts.

They have different opinions on what they believe the underlying probabilities are, but what they all have in common is that they will take a margin on the different outcomes of the games.

As we saw in the example of Manchester city vs. Manchester United, the European bookmaker example had different odds to the Asian bookmakers and in general, had a lot lower payout rates or in other words a higher margin.

So basically what this boils down to is that the European and the Asian bookmakers operate with different business models.

One way to describe it would be to say that the European bookmakers our decision takers. They typically have in-house odds teams that analyze and believe that a certain team is going to win and that XX% is the probability of this team winning.

While the Asian bookmakers, on the other hand, are more booked balancers, so they just want to take in a very large amount of bets and a very large amount of money and then in order to reduce their liability.

For instance, if 1 million dollars is bet on Manchester City winning, they will hedge that out by either shifting their odds to attract more potential bettors to put money on Manchester United or they can lay off the beds at exchange or other bookmakers.

So let's say that both of these bookmakers want to make a 1 million dollar profit. Now because they operate with different business models and there are different ways of them achieving these 1 million dollars of profit.

For example, let’s compare the Asian bookmakers to a company selling soda and European bookmakers to companies selling whiskey. So if you're selling soda, you can sell 1 million of bottles of soda and only have a margin of $1 in each soda you sell and then you're making a million.

While if you're selling 30-year-old whiskey, let's say the margin on each bottle of whiskey is $100,000, then you need to sell only ten bottles in order to reach 1 million in profits.

In other words, the Asian bookmakers operate by having high and low margins but a higher turnover, while the European bookies operate by having a higher margin but they have lower turnover.

The European bookmakers have a higher margin but they have a lower turnover compared to the Asians.

The reason that the Asia bookmakers have this higher turnover is that they love sharp traders to bet through their platforms.

Now, to attract the sharp traders they also offer higher maximum stakes so the sharpest bettors in the world and betting syndicates will do all of their bets through the Asian bookmakers because the maximum stakes that European ones offer are too low for it to be feasible for them.

Even the best betting syndicates and professional sports bettors such as Jonas Gjelstad will only have low ROI per bet, so in order for them to make thousands in profits, they need to have a turnover in the hundreds of thousands, if they want to make a profit of millions, they need to have a turnover of 100 million, and if they want to have a profit of 100 million they need to have a turnover of billions and so it adds up.

Another difference between them is that the most common odds type at European bookmakers is the 1x2, so basically if the home, draw, and away. While in the Asian bookmakers, they typically remove the draw and use waters known as Asian handicaps.

So instead of the draw being a possibility, they will, for instance, give a team a plus-one handicap and they if it ends in a draw then that team with the plus-one handicap will still win.

Now, since the Asian bookmakers are almost purely market-driven, their odds will change much more frequently because as they're constantly trying to **balance the books**.

Suppose get in a large bet on one side. This will cause the odds to drop and then it goes up on the other side just like a lever.

In these markets you have all these sharp traders which are constantly looking for value in the market. If they believe that the Manchester City win is currently undervalued, they'll place bets on that line forcing it to drop and so the odds on Manchester United win will increase. Here you can see an example graph of what this looks like from a cup game between Chelsea and Manchester City.

Now, there might be a different sharp trader out there with a different model. According to their model, the Manchester United is now the undervalued team so they'll place bets on Manchester United to win and so the odds on United will drop and the odds on city will increase.

This will keep going all the way until the game starts and then finally which sort of an equilibrium where everyone's happy with the current prices and this is when we say that the market is efficient. Read more about the efficiency in sports betting markets.

This is also why we say that markets are more efficient closer to kick up than they are early on because at this point in time where money will have moved through the market so you could view it as money = information.

In the Asian market it can take ten thousand dollars or more to move the odds from 2.0 to 1.99 depending on the league. People who wager that amount of money and don’t know what they are doing, won’t last long before they go broke. Only the sharp players will remain over time.

What you'll also see is that these different forms of running bookmaker and they cater to different customers.

European bookmakers are into a larger degree targeting the average Joe that just wants to place a bet on his favorite team to win this weekend and doesn't think very much about the odds that they're getting offered.

This means that the bookmakers can get away with charging odds with a high margin, that are poor value for the players, while the sharp traders or bettors would be a lot more price sensitive so they will only bet when they get really good odds and they believe that there is value in this odds.

Another way that the European bookmakers have made sure that they don't attract the shark bettors is because the limits they have on the different games are a lot lower than all the Asian bookmakers.

On the Asian bookmakers on a Premier League game you know you'll be able to place a maximum bet of several thousand dollars up to $100,000.

At one of the European bookmakers the maximum bet might just be a hundred to a thousand dollars, and if a better proves to be profitable in the long term, the European bookmakers will also target these players and limit them by only allowing them to bet very small amounts.

Now, as we mentioned earlier because if you want to make a profit in the thousands you need turnover in the tens of thousands to the hundreds of thousands and if you're only allowed to place, for example, five dollars on a game, you're going to need a very high volume of bets in order to get there so it becomes very unattractive for the sharp bettors.

The main takeaway from this article is that in order to beat the bookies and be profitable, you have to identify when their odds is miss-priced compared to the underlying probability, what we call a value bet. And this value bet has to be large enough to overcome the bookmakers margin. Luckily, the Trademate Sports software does all of this for you automatically. So the only thing you have to worry about is to place the trades.

Beat the bookmakers ]]>A short answer would just confuse to people, therefore we decided to create this infographic to explain exactly who we are as a company, what we do and why you should totally try out our services.

I hope this sheds light on what we do to the ones that are still confused on how useful and profitable using Trademate can be. If you still have questions, please check out this article.

]]>Not only are the conceps similar, but also you can use similar winning strategies.

In fact, the founder of Trademate, Jonas Gjelstad, found out these similarities and went from $10 000 to $1 000 000 in a year with sports betting. Also check out his interview on the Joe Ingram Podcast on HSPLO and Sports Betting below.

One of the fundamental principles of poker is that it is a long run game.

What this means is that over time the good and the bad luck will even out between players.

The players that actually possess an edge over the opposition are the ones that will be profitable in the long run.

What then is the long run? The easiest way to measure would be the number of hangs a player is playing.

The professional online poker players aim to play tens of thousands of hands every month, hundreds of thousands in a year, and millions over their career.

Over such a large sample size of hands, statistics and the law of large numbers come into play.

Basically, the law of large numbers, which you can read more about in this article, states that the mean of the results that you get from a large number of trials will get close to its expected value. (You can read more about expected value in this article).

Over a smaller sample size, there will be variance (good and bad luck), which are referred to as up and downswings—streaks of good and bad luck over multiple hands.

Up and downswings can last for long periods of time over many hands played.

If you know that you have an edge over the opposition, the only way to beat it is to keep going and build the sample size.

Eventually things will even out re the Law of Large Numbers.

Just make sure that the variance does not inflict crippling damage to your bankroll in the meantime.

The risk of which can be mitigated through proper stake sizing such as the Kelly Criterion and variance (risk) management.

The great thing about the Law of Large Numbers with regards to poker is that it gives the statistical underpinnings for why poker is a game of skill.

If you play enough hands, the good and bad luck will even out and you will be left with your expected value.

This is basically an indication of your skills relative to the opposition.

The best poker players consistently put themselves in +EV positions, because they know that over time it is going to play off.

This is why having a mathematical understanding of the game and being able to calculate pot odds is a fundamental step towards mastery.

If you don’t know how to calculate pot odds, you are lacking the tool to calculate whether you are making decisions that will pay off in the long run.

The Law of Large Numbers: Over time your results will equal the expected value or mean of your trials

One of the great things about poker, which separates it from casino games, is that it is a game where you are playing against other players.

However, it is still a zero-sum game so the skill will be relative between players.

With the rise of educational poker sites and youtube channels over the last 10 years, the skill difference between players has even out.

With more skilled players, the game got tougher to beat.

A factor further complicating the matter is that the house also wants to have their cut for hosting the poker games.

From every hand that is played, they take a cut of the pot, in poker terms, this is called rake (also referred to as vig or margin).

So in order for a poker player to be profitable, not only do they have to beat the competition, they also have to beat the house rake.

On average the rake or margin is typically between 2.5%-10%.

The higher it is, the tougher the game is to beat and the larger the advantage the player needs over the competition in order to be profitable.

For example, if the house margin is 5%, the player has to be more than 5% better than the opposition in order to be profitable in the long run.

Try Trademate SportsNow, in the short run (or a low number of hands), luck or randomness will play a larger impact on the outcome relative to skill.

But in the long run, a great player will crush a rookie.

For every hand that is played they will get a small +EV advantage that compounds with the number of hands played into a large advantage in the end.

So if you are playing against a superior player in a heads-up tournament.

You might actually be better off deciding the outcome on a coin flip all in, than trying to beat them over time.

There is a reason that a lot of the players at the WSOP final tables every year are the same.

Those players have managed to master the skill of poker and gained an edge over their competitors.

So how does all of this relate to value betting?

First off, inside poker, there is a specific term called a “value bet” or “value betting”.

This refers to a situation when you are confident that you have a better hand than your opponent (you have a +EV or positive expected value).

So you determine you stake size for the next bet (the value bet) in order to maximize the profits you take away from the hand.

Value betting in poker is crucial, because if done correctly it enables you to make more money from hands where you have an advantage.

Also, spotting when the competition is value betting will enable you to save money when you have an inferior hand.

Although there are certain similarities, it is not to be confused with the term value betting in sports betting.

There are a lot of similarities between poker and sports betting.

Both are zero-sum games.

Both are games where the house takes a margin and has an advantage over the player for hosting the game.

In poker, you are only competing against other players, while in sports betting you are competing against other players and against the house.

If the house has a lot of bets on both sides of a game, for example a Premier League game between Manchester United and Liverpool, then you are competing against other players.

If you are betting on English Conference League, then you are likely betting against the house as they will not be able to get an even amount of bets placed on both teams in smaller games and competitions.

Football odds is based probability theory

The Law of Large Numbers applies both to poker and sports betting.

In order for you to be a profitable poker player or sports bettor you have to make +EV bets over time.

In poker, this is betting and maximizing profits when you have a hand that is superior to your competition’s (you can also bluff, but let’s leave that out for simplicity’s sake).

While in sports betting it is about making bets that are +EV relative to the odds offered by the bookmaker (the house).

Finding +EV bets in sports bettings is what Trademate helps you doing.

We compare thousands of games across multiple sports in real-time in order to find value bets.

Basically, we are exploiting the inefficiencies that exist in sports betting markets.

This occurs because different bookmakers offer different odds on the same game.

Contrast this to poker, if you know the cards that all the other players are holding, you can calculate the correct probability of each player winning the hands.

A key difference between poker and sports is that the bookmakers do not know the true probability of the game.

Bookmakers are merely guessing who is going to win and who is going to lose.

And some of them are a lot better at “guessing” than others.

Which is what Trademate is exploiting.

Now in order for you to beat the bookmakers, finding the +EV bets—or value bets as we call them—is the first step.

The second step is that you need to build your sample size of bets so that the Law of Large Numbers kicks in.

With a large sample, your actual results close in on your theoretical results (your expected value).

This is why at Trademate we measure the closing odds at the time the game starts.

As explained in this article the closing odds (also referred to as closing line) is the best benchmark for determining what is a +EV or -EV bet.

If you are beating the closing line over time, you actually have an edge over the bookmaker.

Did you know you can get a 1 week free trial of Trademate Sports?

Jonas Gjelstad who founded Trademate and is one of Norway’s most winning poker players of all time (including Heads Up No Limit Texas Hold’em Champion in 2016).

He realized that he could find +EV bets in sports betting markets.

Trademate Sports has been built around automating his approach.

To use an analogy, we are a more advanced version of a poker HUD.

Heads Up Display gives you information about the competition when playing online poker, for example Holdem Manager and Pokertracker.

Not only do we keep track of your stats, but we also take it one step further and show you where you can find value bets.

Your part of the job is to place the bets and build your sample size.

Jonas Gjelstad: Professional sports bettor and poker player. Trademate Sports founder.

Finally, a few words to manage your expectations.

Just like you will not become a professional poker player like Daniel Negreanu after playing 100 hands of poker, you won't get Jonas Gjelstad's results after placing a 100 bets.

Learning a skill and mastering a craft takes time and there are no shortcuts or getting rich quick.

You have to do the work and when using Trademate that implies getting in the bets.

Also, just like Jonas Gjelstad does not share all of his edges in poker or betting, Trademate does not contain all of the answers to profitable sports betting.

Trademate is a tool, which you can customize by setting up your own presets.

But we do have a fundamental approach and setting that has enabled our users to beat the bookies with an avg. ROI of 2.17% per bet over more than 1 million bets placed.

So we are confident in stating that Trademate works well.

If you want to try Trademate for yourself for 1 week, by creating an account and starting a free trial. No strings attached.

Try Trademate SportsClick to go to the signup page to start your free trial

]]>The Dream: Winning the World Cup.

My betting strategy on the World Cup has mainly been centered around keeping Trademate Sports' betting software open in the background while I work and getting in value bets on whoever has been playing on that particular day.

I usually place bets at 1 or 2 bookies having large edges — quite often on the favorites. The results of which, especially in the Round 16, have not been ideal.

I'm also trying to turn over my starting bankroll at a third bookie in order to withdraw my money since they have terrible odds and almost no edges.

For the latter, I had a good run initially before Spain managed to surprisingly get themselves knocked out by Russia and Croatia failing to beat Denmark in regular time.

What I have found to be the most surprising so far during the World Cup is that the difference between the favorites and the underdogs has not been as large.

Neither I nor the bookies, judging by their odd, had been expecting.

So if you have been betting on the underdogs, you should have gotten some great results so far.

I’ll for sure be keeping this in mind for the next big international tourney.

Another surprise has been just how many of the smaller nations on a "traditional football scale" that have players playing around in Europe’s top leagues that I was unfamiliar with before the tournament such as Laxalt (Genoa) for Uruguay or Inui (Eibar / Betis) for Japan.

In theory, international tournaments should be harder for bookies to model as a) it is a low sample size of games and b) many of the teams only play each other every 4 years.

Also, the lineups often look radically different to the last time they played.

On a different note, apart from being a professional trader, I'm also a football fan.

The boyhood dream of every professional footballer (and my own) is to win the World Cup.

The World Cup is the pinnacle of professional football.

For those of us who are not professional footballers, it is like having 30 days of Christmas Eve's in a row.

The only downside with the World Cup for me is me being a Norwegian and Norway not having qualified for the World Cup since 1998 when we beat Brazil before going out in the Round of 16 vs Italy.

Usually, I end up supporting England plus whoever is performing the best.

During this year’s World Cup I have also been fascinated by both Croatia and Uruguay which both exemplify a "never say die" winning spirit, always giving 100% and fighting to the bitter end, in stark contrast to Argentina.

There have been some amazing games, my two favorites so far being Spain - Portugal’s 3-3 draw, France - Argentina 4-3 and the thrilling win of Germany - Sweden 2-1.

My favorite team of the tournament so far have been France who is capable of playing some thrilling attacking football.

And just how fast is Mbappe?! The penalty he won against Argentina was insane.

Credits also to Belgium for all of their goals scored and their strong comeback to win against Japan, nearly avoiding extra time.

This will surely be beneficial once one gets into the final stage of the World Cup.

It will also be interesting to see how this affects teams like England when they are facing Sweden who only played 90 minutes with 3 days of rest vs England’s 4.

Will they gamble on rotating their squad? Or will they play the same team that got the job done against Colombia and risk being exhausted if they reach the semis? This could lead to some great value bets when the lineups are released. Only time will tell.

I will be looking forward to the rest of the games as now the big clashes are starting to line up with France - Uruguay, and Brazil - Belgium on Friday.

Watching the World Cup is more fun when using Trademate Sports

Enjoy the rest of the World Cup and I hope you get some great value bets on!

Remember, once the WC is finished it won’t be long until the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and rest of the big leagues start up again.

In the meantime, one can still find good value on the Nordic leagues, tennis and baseball.

The latter two are currently in their peak with Wimbledon just having started.

Finally, remember that watching the World Cup is a lot more fun when you have some Trademate edges on :)

]]>How does the Spread Bet or Point Spread work in Sports Betting? Marius from Trademate Sports explains Spread Betting using the NBA final between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.

We explain the difference between the point spread in American Odds vs Decimal Odds (European Odds).

TRY TRADEMATE!]]>We explain what the Moneyline is and how it works to bet on it in this video using the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots as an example.

Try Trademate The ULTIMATE BETTING TOOL ]]>

Widely used in various parts of the world, decimal odds is arguably the easiest odds format to comprehend.

They reflect the inverse of the probability of its corresponding outcome.

Decimal odds quote the ratio of the potential payout to the initial stake. In other words, if you place a $10 bet at odds of 1.9, a winning bet returns $19.

Remember that the stake is included in the return, making the remaining $9 your profit.

Also called American odds, *Moneyline odds* can either be quoted with a positive or negative sign.

To illutrate the difference, consider the following example:

New York Yankees -145

Toronto Blue Jays +125

When positive, the number indicates the potential profits on a $100 bet.

This is used when the outcome is considered less likely to happen than not, and suggests that you are betting on an underdog.

When negative, the number indicates the amount that must be wagered to potentionally win $100 in profits.

This is used when the outcome is more likely to happen than not, making a negative sign the hallmark of a favourite.

Favoured in the United Kingdom and Ireland, fractional odds quote the potential return relative to the stake.

For example, a won £100 bet at odds of 2/1 would imply that the bettor made £200 in profits, whereas the same bet at 1/2 imply profits of £50.

It’s easier to see for yourself:

No. Bookmakers usually give you the option to choose your preferred odds format.

If you understand the conversion table above, you are probably more profficient than you necessarily need to be.

We have written articles explaining them:

]]>

For example, consider the following game between Arsenal and Sunderland:

Let's say you bet on 'Under 1.5', with odds of 8. If the total number of goals scored by both Arsenal and Sunderland don't exceed 1.5, you win the bet.

In other words, as long as the game ends either 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, you win.

*Note: Unless otherwise stated, most bookmakers consider the end of regulation time as the end of the game. This means that goals scored in extra time will not necessarily be part of the total. *

We have written articles explaining them:

Try Trademate ]]>Moneyline is the easiest form of betting, in which you bet on either of two teams to win.

There are no draws, which makes this betting type common among sports such as ice hockey, basketball and American football.

Note: There is a clear distinction between Moneyline betting and Moneyline odds.

For the latter, check out our page on different odds types.

We have written articles explaining them:

Try Trademate ]]>

As the name suggests, it is characterized by the fact that you get your money back in case the match ends in a draw.

For example, in football betting on the Premier League, you think that Manchester United will win against Chelsea. However, you recognize that a draw is also relatively likely.

The Draw no Bet gives you the chance to bet on Bayern while protecting your stakes against a tie.

Not all offer this betting option. Luckily, you can always make them yourself.

The easiest way to create your own draw is to choose the team you think will win (as you would with the DNB), and make a bet with Asian handicap 0.

Since the Asian handicap returns your stake if the bet is a draw, this is equivalent to playing DNB.

Another strategy is to place one bet on the team you think will win, and an extra bet on a draw.

If your bet sizing is correct, you will be able to insure against the draw. To illustrate how this works, consider the following game:

**AMOUNT: $100**

**1 (1.50) | X (4.00) | 2 (9.00)**

You want to bet on a win for team 1, but also want to protect yourself against a draw.

First, we calculate the stake we want to place on the home team.

The formula for this is:

**HOME STAKE = TOTAL STAKE x ( DRAW ODDS - 1) / DRAW ODDS**

**DRAW STAKE = TOTAL STAKE - HOME STAKE**

Example calculation:

**HOME STAKE = $100 x (4.00 - 1) / 4.00 = $75**

**DRAW STAKE = $100 - $75 = $25**

The net profit formula for home and draw:

**NET PROFIT HOME TEAM WIN = (HOME ODDS -1) * HOME STAKE**

**NET PROFIT DRAW= (DRAW ODDS -1 * DRAW STAKE) - HOME STAKE**

Example calculation:

**NET PROFIT HOME TEAM WIN = (1.50 - 1) x $75 = $37,5 **

**NET PROFIT DRAW = (4.00 - 1 x $25) - $75 = $0**

If you bet a total of $100, with $75 on the home win and $25 on the draw and the game ends in a home win you make a profit of $37,50. If it ends in a draw you get your money back. No profits, no loss. That's how Draw no Bet works.

We have written articles explaining them:

Find edges ]]>

1X2 is a type of bet that is common in sports trading where a draw is possible.

There are three possible outcomes, which are represented by each of the three symbols.

1 represents a home win, X is a draw and 2 is an away win. It really is that simple.

You may also observe compositions of the home win, away win and draw.

This is called double chance betting, in which every bet contains two possible outcomes:

*1X* – Team 1 (home) wins or the game is a draw.

*2X* – Team 2 (away) wins or the game is a draw.

*12* – Either Team 1 or Team 2 wins.

We have written articles explaining them:

Try Trademate ]]>Take 2 min to read 6 tips on how to get the most value for time spent with using Trademate:

**1. When to bet**

The most trades occur between 10am-3pm (UK time) on Saturdays and Sundays.

Next between 6-7.45pm on Tuesday-Thursday when the Champions League and Europa League is played.

**2. Bookies**

Use 5 bookies at a time and start with the ones with the highest number of trades that also have search fields (ask us for the list in the chat).

**3. Edges**

When you have multiple edges in your feed, start with the most important preset, place all the trades at the bookie with the most of them first, sort the trades by stake size.

Then move on to the next bookie. You can read more about setting up your presets in this article.

**4. Edge time**

We have added a feature that shows how long a trade has been an edge. To save time you can skip the ones that are red.

Use your experience with regards to which lines at certain bookies are outdated. E.g. I never look up asian handicaps at Comeon, but I do look up 1x2.

**5. Be fast**

Use a password manager (e.g. Lastpass) to save time when logging into bookies.

Also, use a tool like Spectacle for Mac to quickly shift and resize different browser windows.

**6. Keep yourself updated**

Set up mobile notifications for your most important preset.

Find Edges ]]>

This article will give you an overview of everything there is to know about using Trademate. This way you can read the parts you find interesting and skip the parts you already know.

Why does Trademate work and how do we find value in sports betting markets

Article: Closing line: The most important metric in sports trading

Article: The impact of stake sizing on results and variance.

Tips, tricks and how to use Trademate

Known errors and things you should be aware of:

Article: How to reduce variance and the impact of bad swings.

Article: How to setup accounts for Matched Betting, Arbitrage Betting and Value Betting.

Core: Interview with Mathias

Core & Pro: Interview with Miro

Core: Interview with Martin

Different types of Odds:

Article: Essential tools and resources for sports traders and bettors

Article: Closing line: The most important metric in sports trading

Article: Hedging Bets: A strategy for reducing your risk when trading sports?

Article: Why a high volume of trades is the key to success in value betting: The Law of Large Numbers

Article: Exploiting arbitrage opportunities in sports betting markets.

Video: Stake sizing and bankroll management for using the Kelly Criterion

Try Trademate ]]>