No one is able to perfectly predict the outcome of every sporting event. However, this
does not imply that it is impossible to become a profitable sports bettor, nor that those
who are profitable are merely lucky.
The goal is not to win every bet, but to make +EV bets.
The goal when betting is not to win every bet you place, but to make decisions
that have a positive expected value (+EV). In other words, you want to place bets
that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds you paid for.
Beating the closing line equals + EV
As previously described, the sharp bookmakers’ closing lines are considered to be the
expected value. This means that If you traded at higher odds than the closing line, you
have made a +EV bet. On the other hand, if your odds are lower than the closing
line, your bet has a negative expected value (-EV). In that case, it’s time to revise
your strategy. You can read more about the closing line in this article.
Successful sports betting is a long run game
Over a small sample size of bets, variance will have a dominating impact on your
results. In other words, anything can happen. However, over a large volume of bets,
the variance will even out and luck is replaced with skill. In the end, only sports bettors
who are able to consistently beat the vig-free closing lines at the sharp bookmakers
will be profitable.