Key Takeaway: Don’t cash out your value bets.
In recent years, sports bettors have been given the option to Cashing Out their bets in the middle of a game. This has grown to be a very lucrative revenue source for bookmakers. In this article we will explain:
What it means to “Cash Out” in sports betting
The formulas behind Cashing Out
Exemplify an option to Cashing Out
Conclude whether one should take advantage of Cashing Out or not.
TLDR: Don’t cash out your value bets.
Cashing out in Sports Betting is something that is considered to be the safe option, a middle-way between partially winning the bet and risking to lose it all. This option makes sure that the bettor can receive payment at any given point in time during the game, as the bettor withdraws from the bet when in the lead.
Let us say that we have a soccer match between “Team A” and “Team B”. If you bet $100 on Team A, with decimal odds of 3,20, your full payment from the bet would be $320.
If Team A is ahead at half-time, but not in an impressive fashion, you have the opportunity to cash out, and immediately receive a portion of the full payment. This will cancel the rest of the bet, and you might only receive $160 instead of $320.
This is due to the elimination of risk throughout the second-half, where Team A might not be able to keep their lead to the very end of the game.
What formula lies behind the Cash Out?
The formula behind Cashing Out is compiled from real-time odds and the full payment of your current bet.
In the example previously stated, the Cash Out option at half-time was at $160 instead of $320. The Cash Out option is obviously lower than the full amount, but if we look closer it is actually lower than what the correct, or “fair” amount is as well.
The fair amount of a Cash Out option is found by the following formula;
Full payment of bet / Real-time odds
If we use the formula on the example given, we have;
$320 / 1,60 = $200
This means that by Cashing Out during half-time, you would lose $40 compared to what the real and fair value of the bet is at this point in time.
This is more than likely to be the case in any given game, as the bookmakers are looking to take advantage of every opportunity to make money of the bets, or in this case make sure that they do not lose additional money from the bet. The bookmakers are likely to have a margin on the odds, and have a margin on the offered opportunity of the Cash Out as well.
This is largely why the Cash Out is an option that will harm your profitability in a long run, and should not be included in your betting strategy.
But, are there situations in which the Cash Out option is an attractive option?
- The short answer is: Yes (see examples below)
When the Cash Out option offered exceeds the market price
In some rare cases, the Cash Out option will have a higher value than what the odds from other bookmakers are. This is an indication that the offered Cash Out option is listed at a value above what the actual fair price is, and is definitely a favorable option for the bettor to take.
High values and acting rationally
As previously mentioned, the long-term strategy of a bettor should be to maximize profits through seeing out all bets to the very end. Despite this being the case in most situations, acting rationally should also play a part in your betting strategy. This means that you should be observant of your bets as they are happening, and always look for the best options for yourself.
Cashing Out might be relevant when discussing bets that are of very high sums of money or if a bet with very high odds has almost been fulfilled. In these situations, the bettor can choose to act in a rational way and Cash Out with the guaranteed payment.
For example, a bet on a team considered to be on the lower side of the table to win the league, with a $2000 stake and 200,00 in odds is nearing the end of the season. However, the competition, has improved their play lately and is very close to re-gaining the lead.
In this situation, the sensible thing to do might be to Cash Out, and receive some payment as a guarantee, rather than risking being left with nothing.
The full payment of the bet would have been $400000, and the Cash Out option might be $205000. The fair price however, would be the full payment / the real-time odds of 1,80.
This would have given a correct value of $222222. In this scenario, it might be wise to explore the option of Cashing Out, even though you might feel like it is a loss. So if you find yourself with a big bet on Leicester to win the Premier League again at 200 i odds and they are in the lead with 3 points and 3 games to go. You should consider cashing out the bet. (Really you should not place these bets in the first place, as they have sky high variance. In addition the bookies take very high margins on futures markets, which diminishes the value to be had).
Lowering the opportunity costs
When operating with bets that are connected to a long timeframe, the opportunity costs will increase. The opposite is the case for bets connected to a shorter timeframe, as the opportunity costs will decrease. Therefore, to lower the opportunity costs, it might be useful to Cash Out on some of the bets with the longest timeframes, if the right opportunity presents itself.
There is, however, an alternative to Cashing Out;
Hedging a bet will contribute to a reduced level of risk, but will also decrease the return on your investment. This alternative to Cashing Out will also put the bettor at greater risk of having your bet voided. However, If you place the hedge side of your bet at a sharp bookie or betting exchange you should be fine in 99.9% of the cases.
Hedging, in short, means to exploit the differences and changes in odds between the different bookmakers, to create a guaranteed profit from a certain game. This is a rarity, and does not happen in a bunch, but there are certain situations in which this can happen (see great example from an article we wrote on How to Hedge Your Sports Bets here.
If Team A has very high odds long before kickoff, and this suddenly changes into Team B´s favor, it would potentially be possible to exploit this. As long as the profit from the bets on each side covers the risk on the other, the total profit from the bet will be guaranteed. Typically you will get better odds on hedging the bet than you will on cashing out. So it is the recommended option of the two.
Cashing Out is not an option for Sports Bettors who want to make money from betting in the long run
In addition to losing on the margins the bookmakers take from the bets and from the offered Cash Outs, the Expected Value of the bet will decrease compared to seeing out the bet. Read more on Expected Value here. The bettor also runs the risk of getting limited or even banned from certain bookmakers.
Key Takeaway: Don’t cash out your value bets.
This is not an article about HOW to do arbitrage betting (sure betting) or value betting. You can read more about what arbitrage betting and value betting is and how they are different in this article. If done right, both ways are betting methods that will quickly multiply your initial investment and these can be a carried out by someone with little or no experience with sports betting. For more information on arbitrage betting (arbing), I suggest an internet search, there are numerous good articles out there. For value betting, I recommend Trademate Sports’ free value betting lessons, which have a solid scientific approach. This article may guide you in case you want to start making money in sports betting, or if you’re already making money but consider changing your strategy from arbitrage to value. This article is about the pros and cons for each of the two strategies based on my personal experiences on the first two years of sport betting. All data presented in this article is real.
Although it sounds nice to multiply your investment, there is no such thing as guaranteed easy money (as far as I know). Being profitable at sports betting requires you to spend many hours with your computer/cell phone/tablet or at the local betting shop. If you already like spending time with video games and watching sports, this may even be appealing to you. There is another thing: due to limited liquidity in the betting markets, you can only invest up to a certain amount. Hence, if you are already a millionaire, it might be unrealistic to believe that your millions will multiply in a short time via sports betting.
Until August 2015, I had never before placed a sports bet, so I am no experienced bettor. I started with very small investments, in the hundreds – as things were starting to progress, I began to invest more, but I have never had more than EUR 5.000 invested. Today I have cashed out the initial investment plus another EUR 9.000 in profits. My overall profits have grown steadily, approaching EUR 22.000 and I even had months where I did not bet at all. This may seem like much money to some people, few money to others. It really does not matter, wealth is relative and up to a certain limit, one can choose any size of starting investment. I know that there are arbitrage bettors and value bettors who make much more money, people who have more money and more knowledge. In fact, there are sport bettors who make a living out of it. I am not of this kind and I still have my regular job, but sports betting has provided me with a solid second income and thanks to this, the balance of my family’s overall wealth has grown significantly and I have rewarded us with several extra vacations, instead of just being able to balance income with expenses without luxury.
I did arbitrage the first year, but then I transitioned to value last year. Today I am only value betting for numerous reasons. This does not mean that arbitrage is a worse strategy – in the end, the strategy of choice is probably whichever strategy is a good fit to your personality. Both strategies will give you a positive return in the long term. I will now go into reasons for choosing the right strategy.
First, let us have a look at my betting history, which will be the case study when evaluating both strategies. The overall profit chart provides us with an overview.
Turnover / 10: The turnover divided by 10 for illustration purposes.
Sum: The overall profit. Sum of Value, Arbitrage, Bonuses, Errors and Expenses.
Sum of soft books: If there had been no bets on sharp books, the sum curve would look like this.
Value bets: Profits from value betting.
Arbitrage bets: Profits from arbitrage betting.
Bonuses: Profits from bonuses.
Bank balance: The balance of how much that has been invested (negative) or cashed out (positive).
Errors: Balance of wins/losses due to wrong arbitrage bets, calculation errors and misplaced value bets.
Expenses: Cost of odds arbitrage and value services, transfer fees and commissions.
The overall sum (solid blue line) shows a steady growth of overall profits from sports betting. The three contributors to profit are Arbitrage betting (dotted purple), Value betting (solid purple) and Bonuses (solid green). Errors (dotted red line) and Expenses (solid red line) detract from the profit.
The sum of soft books (dotted blue line) is a hypothetical case to show the potential profit had I not been betting on the sharp books (more on this below).
I have been using 4 sharp books and 18 soft books for the betting. For arbitrage betting, there has been one sharp book and one soft book involved in almost every bet. For value betting, there has been only soft books. A more detailed presentation of this is located in the table below.
I am not naming which soft books I use, as I would not like it to be possible for any soft book to identify me as the author of this article. Generally, for the case of my betting, soft books are profitable and sharp books are unprofitable as expected. There is an exception with SBObet, generally considered as a sharp book, which has been profitable to me. Maybe this is due to variance, since I have not placed many bets there, only 159. Book5 is a soft book exception. This one has not been profitable even after thousands of bets, but very close to break-even. This soft book is probably not so soft after all, but it is a rather rare case among soft books.
ROI, TURNOVER AND STAKE SIZE
When looking at the overall profit (Sum) in the graphic presentation earlier, it seems that it has been quite steady, resembling a straight line, except from a dip and a rise this year. When looking at the columns for turnover however, it seems evident that there is more wagering during arbitrage, than with value betting. The following schematics confirms this.
Obviously, there is a high ROI for betting involving getting your bonuses, but these are only initial and not expected to give you continuous profits. Value betting seems to give you much higher ROI than arbitrage betting. The reason is simple: when an arbitrage opportunity occurs, one part has usually not adjusted the odds according to market value. In almost every case, this is the soft book, so during arbing profits at the softs starts to increase while deficits at the sharps start building up. These deficits are the price to pay for having guaranteed profit in every bet. So betting on sharp books in arbing is a sort of insurance to avoid losing money in the short term. In the long term, this becomes very expensive. Today I am simply betting on the soft side of an arbitrage bet. This is my value bet. Had I had the confidence and knowledge to do this right from the beginning I would have had 50 % more profits today, as seen in the graphic presentation earlier (dotted blue line). However, in sports betting variance is huge, so it takes some time to realize that you are pumping money into the sharp books. Look at the Pinnacle balance for instance:
Relying on the data alone, I would still be in doubt after 1000 bets, whether Pinnacle is profitable when arbing. Ultimately, after a sample size of 1500 bets, I am convinced that Pinnacle is sharp, and I have the feeling that I have spent 5.000 EURO at Pinnacle for the sake of my own comfort, money that I wish that I had not spent. It would be great to be part of the elite that bets on Pinnacle and is profitable in the long term, since Pinnacle does not restrict winners. However, this is does not seem possible with regular value betting and definitely not with arbing.
In summary, arbing comes at a price. You need larger turnover and stakes to compensate for the price of the insurance. The soft books will eventually limit or exclude any person who is profitable in the long term. They may do it based on “inappropriate betting pattern”, “suspicion of arbitrage play” or anything else written in their terms and conditions. These are all just phrases with one common goal: to reduce your possibilities as a profitable bettor, so that you are no longer a threat to their business. I do not blame the soft books, in fact their behavior is quite rational. The betting industry is funded only by people losing while (hopefully) having a good time, so any consistent winners are counterproductive and must be stopped with any means before they grow too big.
From the perspective of the soft books, it makes no difference whether a player is arbing or value betting, both methods bet on favorable/wrong odds and this is unprofitable for the bookmaker. In case of limiting, value betting has an advantage. Larger turnover and larger stakes will get you limited faster. So value betting with smaller stakes, while achieving the same ROI will keep you longer in the game. Once limited, you can continue to value bet, with smaller stakes close to max limit. It is still cost effective, since arbing takes much more time to do. My average stake size for value betting is only a quarter compared to arbitrage for that particular reason, but profits are at least the same. On average, it would take me 2 minutes to do an arb, because I would need to calculate stakes and bet at 2-3 different places, and many confirmation steps. It takes me only 20-30 seconds to do a value bet, because it is one bet and just a short mental calculation of the stake. Value betting can be done anywhere, for instance via the cell phone when waiting for the bus, it is like playing a video game on the cell phone, which most people do anyways. This is not so easy with arbing. If you use a betting service such as Trademate Sports it is really easy to register the bets you placed and keep track of your betting history.
The main reason why many people choose to do arbitrage is to avoid the unpleasant feeling of losing money. Arbitrage betting, or “surebetting”, gives you guaranteed profits on each bet regardless of the outcome. Well, this is not the same as completely risk-free, as surebets are quite sensitive to errors. Errors may occur when I accidentally place two bets on the same losing outcome without noticing, or when I cover one side of the bet, but the other bet has vanished in the meantime, when one bet is voided by the bookmaker, etc. Usually, arbing has larger stakes to compensate for the low ROI, so when something goes wrong it has a large impact. This happened to me 5 times in January 2016. Each time I was unlucky to lose money and each time I had the feeling that many hours of betting was lost. It took around 40-50 surebets, several days of work, to make up for one error. Still, for the experienced arbitrage bettor who makes fewer errors, the arbitrage strategy is quite risk-free.
In value betting, one has to accept, that although the overall tendency is upwards, there may be swings up and down, just like an index at the stock market. It is great when things go in your favor, you may get the feeling that you are on the road to become a millionaire next month. When things go bad you may get the opposite feeling, that this activity will eventually bankrupt you and you seriously start doubting whether there is something fundamentally wrong with your strategy. In both cases, emotions (rather than rationality) may have taken over. While emotion may be what motivates and drives people, it may be your enemy when you hit the winning streaks and losing streaks. You have applied a money management strategy, but still these unpleasant emotions may hit you, although you already knew that this is part of the game.
This is what happened to me when I first started betting. I had actually considered both strategies and I decided to value bet. Things were going great, but as soon as I got some downward swings after 50 bets in late August 2015, I felt uncomfortable and decided to begin my betting career doing arbitrage instead.
This behavior was emotional, because I was abandoning a strategy I had already chosen, which had even given me two-digit ROIs, for a less profitable strategy, which I initially had decided not to do. I was definitely not losing at the time, but the motive was still to remove the uncomfortable feeling of losing a bet.
I later switched back to value betting. Since then, I have punched the pillow and slammed the door during some of my losing streaks, but when looking at the overall profit graph in the first chart (solid blue line) some losing streaks are hardly noticeable, they are very small dips in the overall picture. Some people are naturally adept in being rational, while I am not. The cure for me is exposure, which in return gives me robustness. I have also found out that a method that works for me is to glance at my profit graph every now and then. That is where I realize, that although I just lost wagers during the last four days corresponding to half a month of salary on my regular job, this is just part of the game and the tide will turn eventually. I could also stop following the games, just bet and forget - but on the other hand, I like sports and the games are quite exciting to watch, especially when you have bets on them.
As goes for any other profitable bettor, every soft book will eventually give me ridiculously low limits or exclude me, so I am continuously considering the step of the evolution as a sports bettor. Luckily, some soft books are quite winner friendly and do not shut you down immediately and new companies emerge all the time, so value betting on soft books may continue for some time.
The logical next step will be value betting on Asian bookmakers. These bookmakers have much sharper odds, but do not have a reputation of systematically excluding winners. To my knowledge, there are little to none arbitrage opportunities here, but there are still value bets to be found. The Trademate Sports Pro product find value bets by comparing the Asian odds to the true probability of an outcome. Obviously, with sharper odds, ROI is lower, but a larger bankroll and larger stakes compensate for this.
When it comes to profitability, value betting is superior to arbitrage betting, since there is no “insurance fee” to the sharp books. If there was no such thing as limits, arbitrage betting could be more profitable, since stake sizes can be larger than with value betting, when there is no such thing as variance to compensate for. However, stake sizes are not scalable towards infinity, limits exist and they will happen to any successful sports bettor, so this makes arbitrage harder to do in a limited environment.
As both strategies are profitable, one then has to consider whether the reduced profits and much accounting on arbitrage is worth it, in order to avoid the unpleasant and inevitable losing streaks. This would be up to each individual to evaluate and experience. The choice of strategy will probably have to do with the sports bettor’s personality.
Written by a guest contributor who calls himself Vida in the Trademate Slack. If you have any questions, you can ask him there.
This post originally appeared at www.daily25.com and has been reposted here with the permission of Steve from the Daily25 blog. It is written by Matthew Trenhaile, who has worked as an odds compiler for many years and is now out on his own taking on the bookies. You can follow Matthew on twitter @CrazedAlchemist and he also has his own blog.
Over to Matthew.
In the following article, I will be looking into the subject of profiling. I will discuss and analyse the process and how it has changed over time, rather than just looking at the business and morale perspective of it. In my fourth article I will look at account restrictions, as I wish to explore and explain all relevant elements of the case.
In this article, I will also be taking a closer look at how tipsters work, in addition to taking a closer look at how they influence the trading decisions at bookmakers and their management of risk. Bookies will a lot of the times profile tipsters to some degree, rather than profiling the actual clients themselves.
Profiling in The Old Days
Bookies are known to have profiled bettors on a consistent basis throughout the years, be sure of that. For example, when betting at the racetrack, bookies had the option of rejecting your bets, change the place terms, only allow stakes that they were comfortable with, or even lay off bets to another bookmaker to have the liability change hands. There were definitely differences between tracks and areas, as they would demand different behaviours from bookies. This did not change the fact that they might have forced you to play at worsened odds, as they wished for you to change bookmakers. The knowledge of each bookmaker and their ability to identify the profitable bettors were extremely important back then, just as the situation is today. In the old days, they had to recognise people that were playing on behalf of profitable bettors.
There is a chance that it was easier to place a great bet of a decent size, due to the approach of some bookies. Bookmakers used this information to create their own books the way that they wanted to. This was at the cost of the liability of the accepted bet, but also to over hedge the bet with another bookie at the same track, before they understood that someone placed a smart bet and that this could destroy their odds.
This way, it was sensible to earn smart money in manageable stakes early, rather than to get picked off in the future, when the opportunity to hedge the bets where a lot lower. At a certain point, this attitude changed and was abolished at European and American bookmakers, with the exception of a few that still remained in the Asian markets. If anything, as the number of bets have risen in the whole world, the hunger for early smart money in Asia has increased, as the fight to become the smartest and quickest has become something of extraordinary importance. So what happened to the rest of them?
Profiling with The Rise of Online Betting
Bookies in Europe and in America understood that when the online betting-markets were on the way up, there was a great amount of money to be made. However, when there is an unsatisfied need in a market, a lot of competition will arrive, and quickly. As the world of online poker had a dramatic increase, the market saw a betting boom. “Everyone” made a lot of money, and as a result there was a possibility of making money off Sharp betting and bonus-bagging, or even Arbitrage betting for a while. This was, of course, before anyone noticed and closed their accounts. Unfortunately, when the market stabilised itself and in addition was struck by the collapse of the US poker market, the job for bookies became a lot harder.
Customer acquisition-cost became a lot higher, due to the increased number of competitors, all trying to get a hold of the current pool of clients. This was increasingly important, due to the decrease in poker revenues. At this point, the bookmakers had to lower their restrictions and limitations to make sure that they kept customers. Profiling was now driven by odds compilers, who were able to see bets laid, due to the vast improvements in technology at the time.
I cannot speak on behalf of other compilers, but there were situations where the relationship between I and the bettor became personal, and I would pressure for a limitation or restriction of an account. This situation also happened in the opposite direction, as sharp clients betted once the market was settled, and in a moderate stake on a decent market.
Sometimes I would like the relationship between myself and the clients that played smartly, as long as they stayed “honest”.
As far as the online industry goes, the increase in Arbitrage Betting and the exploitation of bonuses took its toll on the bookmakers. This saw an extreme increase in how many clients were turned away from betting, just as much as how many they managed to get in. To the bookmakers it was all about becoming, and staying successful.
Risk Management Departments
To some bookies, it came as a huge surprise when they realised just how many of their bettors were making money from their sites or exploiting their bonus offers. This realisation only came around after they started to analyse their figures. This effectively meant that the common odds compiler did not have the time or the ability to do all of the profiling. Therefore, risk departments appeared at every major bookmaker.
A risk department is a team of people, who are rewarded if they manage to keep out the players that manage to turn a profit at their sites, meaning that the bookmakers lose money. As risk departments are paid after how many bettors they manage to keep out, there will always be people that look to exploit this, and take it too far.
Risk managers in the United Kingdom used to have the greatest tool available for them. This was because Betfair was available to them, and was advantageous because odds compilers weren’t able to beat Betfair at all markets every time, and therefore they knew that bettors that played at higher odds than at Betfair, would have to be sharp bettors. This assumption continued and escalated, to the point where there was a consensus that compilers couldn’t beat Betfair on any market.
The high focus with Arbitrage Betting in the United Kingdom betting industry was mainly aimed at backing the bet at the bookie, while at the same time, laying the bet at the Betting Exchanges. This was in place of placing three separate bets at the different bookies, for a guaranteed return. It is necessary to point out that there is still some risk involved.
People that work with odds compiling do not like traders that focus on Arbitrage, but will in some situations tolerate a sharp trader. This is due to the work ethic of certain sharp bettors, as they have to put in the time necessary to be able to calculate the results of matches and events. An Arbitrage bettor only has to worry about placing a bet after receiving a notification on a site, and cash in on the opportunity. In many compilers` eyes this eliminates the competition between opinions and knowledge, and therefore, they are less respected among odds compilers. Some compilers will tell you that the work is mentally and physically stressing, and takes a toll on them.
Arbitrage Betting actually did a lot of positives for the risk departments, as they informed them about how the markets work, in addition to have them realise that the Pandora’s box was opened by sites that compared odds. It was also useful to understand that copying an already established sets of odds in the market was efficient, and it was also a factor in being able to decrease Arbitrage betting opportunities and certain types of sharp betting.
The situation in the present is that there are entire teams and departments that are concerned with surveillance and monitoring bettors on a constant basis. This is because the bookmakers want every client to be a part of paying for the excessive budgets in marketing and advertisement, in addition to affiliates. If the bettor doesn’t generate a profit of some sorts to the bookie, it is more than likely that the bookmaker will take action, and either limit or eject the account. By now, it has become clear that is very difficult and complicated to beat a widespread arbitrage across all the markets, without changing the prices, and therefore these accounts get flagged.
If you don’t change the prices along with the market, there is a clear chance that when you have the best price at any outcome, there will be an Arbitrage opportunity with another bettor in a place somewhere else. In this situation you will end up having the best price, even if it was unintentionally. This is if you don’t change your prices, including when you haven’t struck a bet yet.
The bookmakers have completely gotten rid of the thought of potentially losing money on a client of theirs, even if it was to make money on other clients. When we look at it like that, they have rejected the thought and concept of making a book. In reality, it would be very difficult to make a balanced book without the assistance of the Pinnacle Model, due to the high number of bookmakers one can bet with. The bets that are most often struck on a market are Arbitrage openings, and on some occasions Tipster selections.
Books that end up lopsided are a reality that is hard to avoid for most bookies, because of the fact that square money has a tendency to bet exclusively one way, in addition to betting at a different time compared to the sharp bettors. In some cases, however, they tend to bet the same way as the sharps, only at a changed price and at a new time. The latter of these bets are the best bets to take, even though they will be a part of creating a one-sided book. It is important that, when you have to cheer on a particular outcome, you make sure that it is one that the worst bettors have placed money on.
What Do They Look for When Profiling?
It is important to note that risk departments aren’t exactly the same at all bookmakers, but there are a few things they look for in general, that apply to most of them;
· Is the account profitable? As crazy as this might seem, this is the reality of the situation. If your account is profitable, you will get noticed. It is impossible to hide from this fact.
· Is the account considered to be sensitive to prices, and has the account placed a bet through a medium that is considered to be price sensitive? This might, for example, be a site that compares prices. Sharp bettors are considered to be price sensitive, and as a result they are not wanted.
· When was the bet placed? If it was placed earlier than a day before the match or event will signal that something might be “wrong”, and raise attention to your account.
· Is the price to be considered an Arbitrage price?
· Did the price decrease greatly following the placement of the bet? The closing price is a lot more accurate than what the opening price is.
· Did the bettor only place one bet, or did the bettor place a series of bets? This point might be debatable, but the common bookies like to see you place more than one bet at a time. This is because they want you to want as much action as possible, and for them to be able to profit at a maximum from you.
· Have you made withdrawals rather than deposits? Bookies do not like to lose money.
· Did you use an E-wallet when you had plenty of options that are more directly connected with the bookmaker available? This could be recognised as betting sharply, as you give the impression of wanting to move your money in fast fashion. This could also be mistaken as money laundering, which might lead to having your account flagged, regardless if you are or not.
· If you haven’t used the casino, you should consider doing it.
· Bookmakers don’t like bettors that place bets at niche markets, and don’t play the events that they highlight themselves.
· Bookies also don’t like high stakes, as they make more money when people bet “for fun”. This is usually synonymous with placing low stakes.
· Consider using the mobile platform that the bookie suggests. If not, be wary when changing IP Address.
· Bookmakers actually raise their eyebrows when a woman places a bet, as they are not thought to be the “conventional” client. If they do, the bookmaker might suspect that they are going to exploit Arbitrage opportunities, or are a bowler account.
· Do your bets match your demographic? Bookmakers are more thorough in gathering of background information nowadays. In the old days, the bookmaker might only want rich clients, but in the present they even accept students.
· Do you allow their cookies on the site?
· Have you placed bets at the same time as other bettors? Or have you placed bets at the same time as Arbitrage Bettors or Tipsters?
· Never bet on a match that is fixed, or that might be considered to be fixed. This will flag you, whether it was intentional or unintentional.
· Never establish yourself in the industry of tipsters, don’t associate yourself with the industry, don’t be friends or follow people in social media that are associated with betting.
There are probably other factors that play their part as well, but the list above works like a pointer, and if you follow these tips, your accounts might be safe. If you end up being limited or cancelled, ask yourself if you followed the list.
In the closing paragraphs, I will discuss the subject of Tipsters. Most of the time, bookmakers aren’t concerned with Tipsters (when considering the sharp betting perspective). Most bookmakers have a very high number of clients that follow the tips of Tipsters blindly, and therefore they don’t instantly inspire fear. Again, Steve has expressed his thoughts on Tipsters, as they are in now way a guarantee of a profit. Tipsters contribute to creating markets that are heavily weighted on one of the sides, which is unfavourable in the smaller and most liquid markets. Tipsters might also create overlaps with the points in the list above.
In general, a Tipster will try to tip at the best price and a long time before the event starts. Often, Tipsters are the reasons for why prices collapse. If some of their subscribers place high stakes at the exchanges, they might make other bettors look like Arbers (Arbitrage Bettors). This collapse could trigger those who bet on prices that are currently dropping, to push the market even lower, leaving the bookie with a negative and horrible result. This result would be difficult to turn into something positive, as they weren’t quick enough when changing the price. This is why bookmakers follow Tipsters closely.
I, myself, have signed up for trials at Tipster services, to see and to understand the angle that Tipsters were taking, and if I had overlooked anything. Generally, compilers respect Tipsters that appear to be compiling their own price further, before they eventually tip a selection. A compiler that knew what he/she was doing, would always use the Tipsters to learn, if they had a great merit and history. Compilers will quickly dismiss Tipsters that don’t have any results that are verified, that don’t seem to have a clear strategy, and the ones with inflated ROIs beyond what they deem to be likely.
Said in other words, we as compilers, were trying to do the same as the punters are doing in high volumes nowadays, in addition to seeing who we should take seriously.
Websites that were related to betting, with useful stats and calculations of models were of high interest for us. Most of them were checked, but as it turned out, we were already sitting on the information from the past.
Hedging sports bets can enable you to reduce your risk, but it will also reduce your potential ROI. Therefore it is a tradeoff between risk and reward that you as a trader have to make.
Be aware of potential pitfalls such as bookmakers voiding your bets as they can leave you exposed with high risk and no upside.
“A hedge is an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.” - Investopedia
An Example of Hedging a Sports bet in a Russian Premier League Game
As a sports trader you can reduce your risk by hedging a trade you have placed. For instance on November 30th, 2016, Ural played Rostov in the Russian Premier League. The opening odds for the game offered by Pinnacle is included in the table below. Rostov both being higher placed in the League and being a team that beat Bayern Munich at 15 in odds in the Champions League the week before was the favorite to win the game.
Soft bookmakers typically place their odds lower than the odds offered by the sharp bookmakers such as Pinnacle, because they have a lower payout rate. 2,5 hours before kick-off, November 30th, the Norwegian bookmaker Norsk Tipping (NT) offered the game at 2.95 for a Ural win. However at this point in time the odds at Pinnacle had dropped to 2.17 (removing their 2,5% vig, the true odds would be 2.26) resulting in a 30.5 % edge [ ((2.95 / 2.26) -1) *100% ]. Next, Norsk Tipping most likely noticing a large amount of money placed on a Ural win adjusted their odds to 2.6 resulting in the odds below.
However, this was still a 15% edge versus Pinnacle. I placed the bet at 2.6 on NT with a stake of 850 NOK or approximately 100 USD. If Ural wins I would get a return of 260 USD and a profit of 160 USD (Stake returned - Initial stake). After I had placed my initial bet, I kept monitoring the odds at Pinnacle, which kept dropping. With such a large edge I now had the opportunity to hedge my bet to completely eliminate any potential losses if Ural failed to win, while making a smaller profit if they win. This was achieved by placing a bet on Rostov to win on the Asian Handicap line of +0.5 at Pinnacle at 1.96 in odds about 20 minutes after taking my initial position. Meaning that if the match ended in a draw, Rostov would have a 0.5 goal handicap, the result being a Rostov win. By hedging on Pinnacle I would have a return on investment of 11,7% given a Ural win [ 1 / (1/2.6 + 1/1.96) ]. While breaking even on any other outcome (a draw or a Rostov win), so basically I was freerolling the game without any risk of potential losses. An important point to note is that hedging differs from arbitrage, because the bets take place at different points in time. This enabled me to get a much higher ROI while taking positions on both sides than what I would have achieved through arbitrage at the time I placed my initial bet.
New Information in the form of Lineup Changes Made the Odds Drop
The odds at Pinnacle kept on dropping all the way until kick-off as new information became known to the market. Most likely due to Rostov resting several key players, the pictures below compare the lineup Rostov fielded vs Bayern on the left and Ural on the right.
When the match started Ural had become the favorite and Rostov the underdog. Pinnacle offered the following odds:
The vig-free closing odds offered by Pinnacle at a Ural win would be 1.76 [ 1.71 / 0.973 ]. (You can read more about why the closing line is a good approximation of the true odds of a game here). The closing edge versus my initial trade at 2.6 would have been a 47,7% edge [ ((2.6 / 1.76) -1) * 100%) ]. It is also worth to note that I would have had better odds on my hedge trade if I had placed it closer to kick-off.
The Pros and Cons of Hedging a Sports Trade
The game ended with Ural winning 1-0, giving me a profit of $60. However, if I had simply stuck with my initial trade of a Ural win at 2.6 in odds without hedging I would have made a profit of $160. This highlights the pros and cons of hedging sports. The advantage of hedging was that I managed to eliminate my risk on the game. However, the disadvantage was that I reduced my potential ROI.
Now, because of Norsk Tipping’s specific rules, the Ural - Rostov game was not offered as a single, meaning that I had to match it with another game to form an accumulator. I ended up combining it with another team scoring 2 goals or less in another game at 1.01 in odds. They ended up scoring 2 goals, so it was a close call, that ended with the trade being good. However this also meant that in reality my hedge trade was not completely risk free. If the 1.01 game had not gone in, I would have ended up losing the $100 I placed through Pinnacle. Also, bookmakers often reserve the right to void bets where the odds is wrongly set. This could potentially have left me with a huge -EV trade. So if you are going to hedge your trades, make sure you are familiar with your bookmakers rules and practices.
Lessons Learned from Hedging a sports bet
What did I learn from this experience? One can only make decisions with the information one has available at that point in time. I could not know whether the market would continue dropping in odds on a Ural win after I placed my initial trade or whether it would swing the other way. Therefore I made the decision to hedge my trade and freeroll the game for a guaranteed profit if Ural ended up winning. In hindsight, I would have made the same decision if the trade had been a single on NT. However if I come across trades in the future where there are hedging opportunities, but the game is not offered as a single I would rather run the risk with the potential upside of a larger return on investment
To sum it up hedging a sports bet can enable you to reduce your risk, but it will also reduce your potential ROI. Therefore it is a tradeoff between risk and reward that you as a trader have to make. In addition, you should be aware of potential pitfalls such as bookmakers voiding your bets as they can leave you exposed.
Marius Meling Norheim
"Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from a difference in the price. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments on different markets or in different forms. Arbitrage exists as a result of market inefficiencies"
How high-frequency trading firms exploit arbitrage opportunities in the stock market
With today’s technology, the pricing of stocks is updated within a few milliseconds of real-time. This is way faster than a human is able to perform calculations, which makes it difficult to find arbitrage opportunities in financial markets. As a result, firms who are performing day trading are now using computers to perform algorithmic electronic trading at a speed that is impossible for humans to match. The way this works is that you give the computer a set of instructions, which will trigger it to buy or sell stocks. These instructions can be related to price, timing, volume or a mathematical model. For instance, you write an algorithm that tells the computer to buy 1000 Tesla stocks whenever the price goes above $200 and sell if the stock price increases by 10% above the purchase price. For more reading on arbitrage and algorithmic trading, check out the links.
The non-fiction book “Flash Boys” by Michael Lewis, tells the story of how high-frequency trading (HFT) firms used a super fast fiber optic cable that connected the financial markets of New York with Chicago to perform arbitrage trading. This $300m cable reduced the journey time for data from 17 to 13 milliseconds. An advantage, which enabled the HFT firms to obtain better prices on their trades compared to their competitors.
To illustrate how this works in practice let’s imagine that a hedge fund wants to buy a 100 000 shares of Tesla stock. This purchase will be spread out on multiple stock exchanges to ensure that they get the best possible price on their purchase. As a result 60 000 shares are purchased on Nasdaq for $200 per share, but once someone buys stocks in a company, the price will increase. Thus there are only a limited amount of shares are available for $200. Once the purchase has been made the stock price of Tesla increases to $202 on Nasdaq. Therefore the hedge fund will look at buying the remaining 40 000 shares at a better price on a different stock exchange. At the London Stock Exchange (LSE) Tesla is still trading at $201 because the price has not been updated yet. What happens is that the HFT firm will notice that someone has purchased a large amount of Tesla shares on Nasdaq and therefore they will leverage their faster cable connection to purchase Tesla shares at the London Stock Exchange before the price increases to $202. So let’s say the HFT firm manages to buy Tesla shares at $201 per share at LSE. They then sell the stocks to the hedge fund for $201.99 and pocket a 99 cent profit per share. All of these events take place within a couple of milliseconds and are enabled by the firms using complex computer algorithms to perform their trading. In reality, the pricing difference is more likely down to 1 cent or less, rather than the 99 cents used in this example. However, if the HFT firm is able to perform thousands of trades like this during a day, then the profits will add up to huge sums in the end. According to the article at Harvard Politics, the HFT market produced profits of $5 billion in 2009, but declined to 1.25 billion in 2014. Also, HFT trading accounted for 73% of the total daily market volume on U.S. exchanges in 2014. A possible explanation for this decline can be found in the macroeconomics principle of perfect competition, which states that the existence of economic profits within an industry will attract new firms to the industry. The increased competition will result in diminishing returns for the firms and in the long run the industry will reach the state of perfect competition, an equilibrium where the industry profits equal zero. A second possible explanation is that the stock exchanges have improved their own connections, which reduced the relative edge that the faster connection provided the HFT firms.
According to Investopedia’s definition, arbitrage opportunities exist as a result of market inefficiencies, which allow investors to exploit price differences. Therefore it is not limited to just investments in stocks, but really any market where such opportunities exist. As a result the HFT firms also trade other types of securities such as bonds, futures and foreign exchange contracts. The rest of this article will focus on price inefficiencies within sports markets.
Arbitrage opportunities in sports markets
Within the world of sports betting there exists bookmakers where you bet against the house and betting exchanges where you bet against other people. The latter can be compared to a regular stock exchange, the main difference being that the traders buy and sell bets on the outcome of events such as a football game rather than stocks. What makes the sports market interesting from a trading perspective is that it is more inefficient than the financial markets, which in turn creates arbitrage opportunities. At the free site oddsportal.com, one can compare the odds of a game provided by different bookmakers and betting exchanges, which enables you to see the inefficiencies that exist within the sports market with your own eyes. I’ve included a screenshot of the odds from different bookmakers on the Liverpool – Manchester United game that was played on 17.10.2016.
The odds of a game’s outcome reflect what the bookmaker believes to be the probability of that outcome. The probability of an outcome equals the inverse of the odds, in addition one has to adjust for the bookmaker's payout rate, which is the amount of money that they pay back to their customers. For instance Mybet has a 90% payout rate, which means that they take a 10% cut of the money that is placed on this game. Next let’s compare the odds provided by two different bookies.
What we can see here is that the two bookies differ greatly in what they believe will be the outcome of the game. Now this leaves us with the question of which bookmaker is right and are either of them able to accurately predict the game’s outcome? The earlier screenshot above shows that Mybet’s odds for a home win is 2.40, while the closest bookmaker is at 2.27. This large deviation from the rest of the market indicates that Mybet is the bookmaker who underestimates the probability of a Liverpool win. The consequence of Mybet having mispriced the probability of a Liverpool win, by placing their odds at a higher level than the rest of the market, is that it creates an arbitrage opportunity. More specifically it makes it possible to put money on the outcome of a draw and an away win at two other bookmakers with a guaranteed ROI of 2.62% as can be seen in the screenshot below.
This is what is referred to as a surebet. The advantage of surebets is that in theory you are guaranteed a profit without any risk. Surebets are also called arbitrage bets and have been covered in even more detail in this article. While this article covers some practical experiences of using arbitrage betting from Vida, a guest contributor at the Trademate blog.
However, the majority of surebets will occur at the soft bookmakers (will be defined later), which can lead to several practical disadvantages:
Soft bookmakers limit sports traders who are able to win consistently.
You need to find high enough odds on all of the outcomes for it to add up to a surebet.
If the odds deviate too much from the rest of the market, bookmakers are able to void bets placed on that game. Imagine the following scenario: you are following the recommendation in the screenshot above, by placing money on a home win at Mybet, a draw at Vulkan bet, but when you are trying to place a money on an away win at Leonbet, you are limited to place a maximum of $1. You are now unable to complete the surebet, which results in a huge negative expected value on the bet. (If you are unfamiliar with the statistical concept of expected value (EV), read this short article) Now whether you are investing in stocks or sports the most important principle is to avoid loosing money, because if you loose 50% of your capital ($10 000 → $5000), you will need to increase it by 100%, just to return to the starting point ($5000 → $10 000).
You will need to distribute your capital and thus tie up your capital across a very wide range of bookmakers to take advantage of the surebet opportunities.
Because of the disadvantages with arbitrage trades (surebets) listed above, a better strategy is to place a high volume of +EV trades. An example of a value trade would be to place money on a home win to Liverpool, which has a +6.06% EV. Over a large sample size placing +EV trades should be a profitable strategy in theory. This is based on the assumption that the Asian Bookmaker's odds accurately reflect the true probability of a game’s outcome, which is covered in this article.
WHY INVESTING IN SPORTS OVER STOCKS MAKES SENSE FOR PRIVATE INVESTORS
A rational investor will attempt to maximize returns while minimizing risks. This implies that they will invest in the markets or financial instruments where the potential return / risk ratio is the highest. Investors in financial markets can broadly be divided into two categories: Long-term oriented investors who rely on fundamental analysis and short-term oriented investors who follow a trend or technical analysis. The former are often referred to as value investors, which means that they try to identify assets that are underpriced by the market. They also require the asset to be significantly underpriced, which provides a margin of safety, before they purchase a given asset. What I view as the main disadvantage for the value investors is that, because they are oriented towards the long-term, which can be anytime between 3-10+ years, it means that they will tie up their capital in investments for a long time before potentially reaching a positive return on investment. In the meantime, you do not know whether your hypothesis that the asset is underpriced holds true.
The opposite of strategy would be day trading, taking advantage of short-term price discrepancies in the market. Day traders apply different methods such as looking at chart patterns or technical indicators in order to predict future market movements. Now the main disadvantage with being a day-trader is that computers are superior to humans in performing statistical analysis and for discovering patterns in large datasets. Thus gaining an edge in the market when you are competing against HFT firms is very difficult. The gap in access to information held by hedge funds compared private investors have increased dramatically in the last decades. Today hedge funds can rely on real-time satellite images of the parking lots of JC Penney to predict their quarterly returns, while private investors rely on historical financial statements. The result being that it is very difficult for private investors to compete against the professional hedge funds, especially if they rely on technical analysis. This is because, if there does exist price inefficiencies in the stock market it will be exploited by the HFT firms way faster than any private investor is capable of, returning the market to an efficient state. Thus in practice, the day trader performing technical analysis is competing against HFT firms, with access to less information and using inferior methods.
To manage risk the principle of portfolio diversification is followed by both groups of investors. The short-term investor will typically mitigate risk, by making a high volume of smaller trades with low risk and low returns that add up and provide a positive ROI. In comparison, value investors will make a lower volume of investments, but with a higher potential ROI on each of them. Similar to the day trader a sports trader will perform a high volume of smaller investments on the sports market. With any strategy, it is important to set up a feedback loop that provides you with data on how your strategy is performing. Within sports trading, the natural benchmark is to measure whether the odds you are putting money on is able to consistently beat the closing lines of the sharp bookmakers. If so, you will have a positive expected value, which in theory should lead to profits over a large sample size of sports trades.
Poker players will be familiar with the difference between the short and the long term. In the short term is possible for anyone to win, regardless of skill. Because luck or randomness has a large impact on the outcome. While in the long run, the random variance will even out and the players who have an edge will be the ones making a profit. The same holds true for people who trade in both the stock and the sports markets. Anyone can make a profit in the short term, but in the long term only traders who make decisions with a positive expected value will be profitable.
How price differences occur in the sports market
The reason that computers running algorithms are used to trade in the financial markets is because in these markets prices are updated so fast that it almost impossible for humans to exploit. In the stock market the difference in price that you will be able to obtain when purchasing Tesla stock at Nasdaq versus LSE is close to identical since the updates happen within milliseconds across exchanges in different markets. While in the sports markets the same asset, the outcome in the game between Liverpool and Manchester United is priced differently at different bookmakers or exchanges. In addition, these inefficiencies are not necessarily corrected in real-time. For instance, in the game between Chelsea vs Manchester City on February 21st, 2016 it took the bookmaker Norsk Tipping almost 30 minutes to adjust their odds compared to the Asian market, as seen in the image below. You can read more about how value occurs in the sports market by clicking the link in the previous sentence.
Now compare this to the stock market, where the price would have been adjusted within milliseconds. These market inefficiencies create arbitrage opportunities that can be exploited by smart sports traders.
Being a sports trader
For professional sports traders, the majority of work is put in during the weekends because this is when the majority of games are played. In a given weekend you can potentially run through your bankroll multiple times by placing a high volume of sports trades. Trades are typically placed within a couple of hours before the game starts to reduce the variance that may occur between the opening to closing lines of the bookmakers. Thus the capital of the investor is tied up in the investment for a shorter period of time. The result being that you can grow your fund much faster, than for long-term investments in the stock market.
For example, if your bankroll consists of $10 000 and you place sports trades with an average of + 3% EV per trade. +EV being the trades where you get a higher odds than the closing lines of the sharpest bookmakers. Now let’s assume that you place your trades with a flat structure* of $100 per bet and that over the weekend you place 100 bets. Then your expected profit would be: 100 (trades) x $100 * 1,03 (EV) - $10 000 = $300. Now obviously, whether you endure winning or losing streaks will have an impact on your actual profits . If we assume that there is no variance in the 100 trades we placed or in other words that we are neither lucky nor unlucky, our actual profits would be equal to our expected profits of $300. In reality, the variance will only even out if you are able to place a high amount of +EV trades.
*Your bet sizing is an important topic when trading in the sports market. You can read more about bet sizing in this article.
To sum it up there are 3 main advantages of trading in the sports market compared to the stock market:
Market inefficiencies enable arbitrage opportunities.
Shorter investment cycles provide a higher potential for profit growth and reduced capital tied up in investments.
Faster feedback loop on strategy performance.
Written by: Marius Meling Norheim
Disclosure: Neither I, nor Tradematesports have any affiliation or receive any form of compensation what so ever from any of the bookmakers, websites or companies mentioned in this article.
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