Total profit: $5688. |Profit from 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018: $+401 | SEASON 2 OF TRADING EUROPE

Results so far: A net profit of $401 from my sports trading using Trademate Sports

It was about time for an update as my last one on my sports trading was in September last year. The period from 14 September to 17 March has seen me achieve a total profit of $401 from my sports trading. In total I have placed 484 trades. An average return of investment of 2.8% per bet, an average closing edge of 1.5%. And interestingly enough an avg. flat ROI of -0.3%. Don't pay too much attention to my balance and fund growth. It is a Saturday today so I both have some money in play and my fund growth gets skewed by deposits and withdrawals that I have made into my accounts. The total profit is what is relevant along with the in-depth stats such as ROI and closing edge. 

 The Trading Europe Results from 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018 using both the Trademate Sports suggested trades and my own custom trades. 

The Trading Europe Results from 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018 using both the Trademate Sports suggested trades and my own custom trades. 

Time spent and trades placed

Compared to last season I have spent less time betting and more time working on Trademate as a company. We've also set up a company football team for Trademate Sports, so two evenings a week go to playing football, typically Tuesday's and Wednesday's so then I tend to miss out on the CL action. We also spent a month working from abroad, where accessing bookies was not possible. As a result, my volume of trades is lower compared to last year. Still, I do my best to get in some trades whenever I have time. I have also had to make some withdrawals during the fall which reduced both my bankroll and stake sizing during this time. 

My custom trades and how they affected my sports trading results. 

Interestingly I have placed 10 bets in this time by myself, which were not suggested by Trademate. The results have not been good as you can see in the screenshot below. Although the sample size is not exactly huge. Maybe I would be better of being disciplined and sticking to the system. However I do like to test my own abilities to spot what I think will become an edge, so I will keep making some bets like this, usually with a small stake size so that it does not have a huge impact on my results. The important part is that it remains small compared to my Trademate bets. And that I make sure that I beat the closing line over time. If I can do the latter, then all is well. With the new version of Trademate it is now possible to register your custom trades in the game center with the odds comparison and get closing lines on them which is a great addition. 

 The results of my custom trades  14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018. 

The results of my custom trades  14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018. 

What I look for in a custom sports trade. 

In general when I place trades myself I try to look for favorites in even games which I think will drop before the game starts. The last bet I had here was on Juventus to beat Tottenham Hotspurs in their first Champions League leg. By the time the game started, my trade had a +0.23% closing edge. So I was right in that the odds dropped, but my stake size of 200 NOK was too high. Still, I was happy to have money on Juve to win at home. They ended up bottling a 2-0 lead and missing a penalty for Spurs to draw 2-2. But that is just how it goes sometimes. 

My sports trading results using Trademate Sports only. 

If we remove my custom trades and look at my Trademate trades only, then these are my sports trading results. As you can see the results all look better including both the flat and average ROI. The flat ROI actually being positive, without my custom trades.  

 The Trading Europe Results from 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018 using only value bets from Trademate Sports. 

The Trading Europe Results from 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 - 17 MARCH 2018 using only value bets from Trademate Sports. 

 My overall results. This sceeenshot was taken a couple of hours later in the day, so some of the trades I placed today will have settled and affected the results. 

My overall results. This sceeenshot was taken a couple of hours later in the day, so some of the trades I placed today will have settled and affected the results. 

 

The Trading Europe trades from 14 September 2017 - 17 March 2018

 

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The Presets Used For Soft Books Trading on TradingEurope

From time to time someone asks me if I'm willing to share which presets I'm using, which I am. I have gone through them on previous episodes of TradingEurope and I do make some smaller changes every now and then. So I figured I'd just write a post where I go through my presets and explain more about them. 

General Strategy 

I mainly trade during the weekends and view this as a good way to generate a secondary income. I never risk more than I'm comfortable with losing both in terms of overall bankroll and as my maximum stake size. In the days of Edgebet I tried the high volume all leagues approach and within my 1100 trades found myself limited on 5 of the highest volume bookies. When Trademate was launched it included better filtering options so I decided to change my strategy and rather focus on quality over quantity and take a long-term perspective. Don't get me wrong just as anyone I want to maximise my profits, but since the soft books limit winning players I believe that the best way for me to maximise my lifetime value is to be more selective of which edges I get in on. Therefore 95% of my trades will be on recommended leagues. The exceptions being when I try to clear a bonus. This approach is not for everyone and we have customers who have been getting higher profits than me in a shorter time period, by following more of a high volume all leagues approach. However, I believe that my lifetime earnings from the softs will be higher and only time will tell whether that will actually be the case. So my way is not the only way. I would say that it is best for people to use their own judgment and find a balance between risk and reward that they are comfortable with. 

Presets

This is my main preset. Here I include all of the bookies that I’m using and all sports besides tennis.

Sports

The main reason that I stay away from Tennis is that sometimes players retire after a few sets in a tennis game if they have a more important game a few days later. This makes it unpredictable. That being said I have made a couple of trades on big name players in the major tourney’s previously. 

Oddsrange

I stick to odds from 1-4. There are two main reasons for why I do this. First, the variance is higher the higher you go in odds range. Second, Trademate is currently slightly overvaluing edges in the higher odds ranges, so I want to have higher edges and a margin of safety of a couple of percentage points to move in on trades here. Which is why I set up a second preset for this purpose. 

Edge

I have set my minimum edge at 2%, because more marginal edges than that are not going to be worth my time. At times I have used 1% here, but  these days when I do the majority of my trading on the weekends and there are plenty of edges to choose from I want to focus on getting in on the better edges. 

Hours before kick-off. 

I take edges as early as 7 hours before kick-off on the softs. The timing is an aspect that is much more important on the sharps, than on the softs, so I’m comfortable with going early here. Also, not doing so would make me to miss out on a lot of good edges. As long as one is beating the closing odds, taking early edges is fine. 

Recommended Leagues

I use recommended leagues only here. From my experience my accounts last longer before I get limited when I stick to recommended leagues, as it is a lot less suspicious for me as a Norwegian to play on e.g. the English Championship than Chinese Basketball. 

After Trade Placed

I stick to one trade per game. By having more trades on one game one can increase turnover, but it comes at the cost of a large increase in variance, which is not worth it in my opinion. The one exception I do make is if there is let’s say an over/under edge on Bookie A and a 1x2 edge on Norsk Tipping the Norwegian government bookie. Then I’ll place both trades at times. 

High Odds High Edge

This is a preset I created as I at least want to know about very large edges that occur in higher odds ranges. Then I can make a decision on a case by case basis as to whether or not I’m going to place a trade on it. I have still capped my odds at 6 though so I’m not going all in on very large underdogs. I have set my min edge at 4% to give myself a margin of safety. I also want to know of edges that occur within 10 hours of kick-off. This is also for rec leagues only.

All Leagues.

On some of the bookies I don’t get in as much turnover relative to the highest ones, therefore I have only included those bookies here. Again I at least want to know if there are some very good edges that occur in the smaller leagues. I have narrowed in my odds range to 3 and want a min edge of 3%. This is so that I get more premium edges, with less variance due to the lower max odds. I have limited myself to 2 hours before kick-off. Since the leagues are smaller, they have less liquidity. Thus it takes less money to move the odds so in order to reduce the likelihood that it will end up as a negative closing edge I place these trades closer to kick-off. 

All Leagues High Value

This is an even narrower version of the All leagues filter above to identify even better edges.

Norsk Tipping

Finally for Norwegian citizens. On Norsk Tipping I take everything that is a positive edge and a single. If it is not a single I will combine it with another edge or look for an event with 1,00 in odds (these have been rarer lately). Sometimes I’ll also use an odds comparison site to check up on a very low odds game, e.g. Rafal Nadal winning in Tennis. But here the odds is very important, because if it is too low. It could cancel out the edge you get on the first trade. This weekend for example there was a 10% edge on Feyenoord with a -1 European handicap. If I can get Nadal at a -7% edge I’ll take it. But if it is a trade with a -11% edge on Nadal I’ll end up with a net edge of -1%. Then it is better to avoid the trade and wait and see if better edges show up that you can combine it with. 

 

Season 2 of Trading Europe Week 1 & 2: -$658

I pretty much took a total break from betting during the summer months, but now I'm back in the action.

I think the most accurate way to continue this series is to call it season 2 rather than week 31, or leaving a gap in the weeks to make it accurate with the time since I started. 

So here it goes starting with the trades I placed from the end of May - end of August. Followed by my stats from September. It seems that I picked the worst week to make a return as I find myself on a $658 downswing so far in September. So for those wondering, I'm not immune to downswings either. And at times like these the important thing is to keep getting the trades in. 

Summer Stats 

Trading Europe stats for the summer months

My trades from 29th of May - 31 of August

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September Stats

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September

My trades for September

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Week 30: +$205 . Results & Sports Trades || Trading Europe

I got in 19 trades this past week for a $205 profit with a 5.8% closing. So I have been getting in some really good spots over the last week combined with a good run.

In the coming summer months Trading Europe in generally will be hosted a bit more occasionally. It's good to have at least 50 trades between each stream. In general there are less games during the summer. Although the Nordic leagues are going strong and Baseball just started. But this time period also gives more opportunities to get in work on the general marketing of Trademate. The combination of these two means that I'll be trading less than normal. 

Overall stats for Trading Europe after week 30

Stats for week 30 of Trading Europe

Sports trades of the week

Week 29: -$181. Results and Sports Trades || Trading Europe

It's been another busy work week, with travelling on the weekend. Only 12 trades in total, which resulted in a loss of $181. 

Overall stats

Overall stats after week 29 of TradingEurope. 

Week 29 Stats

Week 29 of TradingEurope. 

Trades of the week

Trades of week 29 of TradingEurope

 

 

Week 28: +$596. Results & Sports Trades || Trading Europe

This week yielded a profit of $+596. Over the last couple of hundred trades my overall results have been very stable. Looking at it from week to week though things have fluctuated both up and down. 

My overall stats

 My overall stats for Trading Europe

My overall stats for Trading Europe

Stats for week 28

 Stats for Week 28 of TradingEurope.

Stats for Week 28 of TradingEurope.

I had a winning streak in the middle that brought me up and before and since thing have remained fairly stable. Running pretty good in the lower odds ranges. In addition my actual avg. ROI is at 19.2%, versus my flat ROI at 12.1%, so my stake sizing has brought me some additional profits. Last week I was running at -11% per trade, which just shows that even a weekly basis with a sample size below 100 trades is not the best measurement of performance as both winning and loosing streaks occur. If one tries to draw to many conclusions from it, those can be misleading. I got in a total of 80 trades with an average closing edge of 3.5%, that is a solid closing to have on the softs. 

My sports trades for the past week

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Trading Europe Trades

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Trading Europe Trades

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Trading Europe Trades

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Trading Europe Trades

Week 27: -$196. Results & Sports Trades || Trading Europe

This week yielded a loss of -$196. Whenever a loosing week occurs I remind myself that this is a long run game and that reviewing stats on a weekly basis really is not ideal. Monthly is better and yearly is ideal in my view. As you can see in the trades I had a rough patch towards the end of the week that brought me down

My overall stats for Trading Europe

Overall stats since October, 2016. Click to enlarge the image. 

My stats for Week 26

 

Week26 stats using the Trademate Analytics tool. Click to enlarge the image. 

 

I got in 48 trades in total, with a -196 loss. Despite this my closing is at 4.2% this week which is great. It probably helped that I had a 96.7% closing edge on the Feirense game! Which ranks in the top 3 edges I've ever had. Also worth noting that my stake sizing saved me a couple of percentage points in losses. Overall I'm running bad in several odds ranges. 

My trades for Week 26

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Week 26: 0 Trades This Week

I've been travelling this week, so zero trades. Looking forward to the CL next week!

Week 25: +$788. Results & Trades

This week yielded a profit of $788 as my run good continued. My avg. closing edge was 2.9% from 60 trades placed, so I am running way above EV. However it is only 2x my avg. flat ROI at 5.8% per trade, which is good, but not super rare. My avg. ROI on the other hand is at 25%. This massive difference between my flat and avg. ROI is down to stake sizing and indicates that my larger trades have gone extremely well combined with loosing smaller amounts on the trades I have lost. In my overall stats I have squeezed out a couple of extra % points of ROI thanks to my stake sizing following the Kelly Criterion, but I think this comes down to an extreme positive skew rather than skills. 

My overall stats

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My stats for Week 25

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My Trades of the Week

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TradingEurope: Week 24 Results

This Saturday I had my single best day of sports trading with a $926 profit, which was a great bounce back after the downswing I've had over the last 2 weeks. I got in 115 trades with an avg. closing of 1.9%.

My Overall Stats

My stats for Week 2. These stats are from Monday - Sunday. But the games below include the one's I've placed on Monday of Week 25. 

My Trades for the past week: 

Bets without an edge or closing edge % such as the Bristol City game are custom bets that I've made. 

TradingEurope: Week 23 Results

This week I find myself down $355 from 42 trades. Downswings are a part of the game and I've been running good for a long time, so some regression to the mean has been due. My avg. closing edge is 3.1%, so that has been solid. This means that I've been finding some good spots. I also added two more bookmakers, which should help with getting more edges in over the coming week.

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My Trades of the Week

TradingEurope: Week 22 Results

This week was an internationals week, which in general are bad, because there are a lot less games on and thus fewer edges. So spent the week doing Trademate work. The few games I got in where mainly on Saturday, when and I ran terribly and lost 11 bets in a row. Remember that winning and losing streaks are a part of the game and that over a high volume of trades these things even themselves out. 

 

Trades of the week

TradingEurope: Week 21 Results

My overall stats for the week: 

98 trades. -0.1% ROI. 3.3% closing. The avg. closing was better this week. But I had a bad downswing midway through the bets. However a huge edge and win for Celta Vigo at 3.58 in odds, 9.7% edge placed and 12.7% in closing brough me back up. The difference between flat ROI and avg. ROI is almost 10% this week! Stake sizing to the rescue. 

My bets for the week: 

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TradingEurope: Week 20 Results

I got in 35 trades this week. It started good with CL and EL during the mid-week, but had to travel again on the weekend. Thus I missed out on Saturday and Sunday, which are the best days of the week. 

 35 Trades. $1.3k Turnover $273 profit. 2.9% Avg. Closing

35 Trades. $1.3k Turnover $273 profit. 2.9% Avg. Closing

My trades of the week: 

TradingEurope: Week 19 Results

It's been a week consisting mainly of travelling and Trademate work, but I still got in 56 trades. I ended up +EV, despite loosing a couple of my larger bets. 

 

 

TradingEurope: Week 18 Results

I've decided that from now on I'm going to make a weekly post of my stats and trades for the past week. 

 My stats for the last week. Running pretty much at EV. 

My stats for the last week. Running pretty much at EV. 

My trades for the past week

Stats and what I have learned from my first 1000 trades on TradingEurope

Yesterday TradingEurope passed 1000 trades. I currently find myself with a total profit of $3259 after 1006 trades. I’m about 2,5x EV, so the run good has kept up despite flattening out a bit over the last 300 trades, which was bound to happen at one point. The first 700 trades were pretty much done from October to December 2016. After I took over as the daily manager of Trademate I’ve had less time to trade, so my trades/week declined in the period from January until now, the 24th of February.

Comments on my stats

My closing edge of 2,6% is ok, but not great. At the European bookmakers only one should be able to have a closing between 3-5%. My average time before kick-off is at 2 hours. Even though I keep my presets upon until a couple of hours before kick-off on recommended leagues, I still try to place my trades as close to kick-off as possible, when the markets are more settled. My average edge placed is at 2.95, which is fine as I’ve been taking a lot of edges in the range from 3-5, especially in the lower English Leagues. My avg. ROI/trade is at 8.1% while my flat ROI is at 5.4%, so using a proportional staking strategy has resulted in an additional 2.7% ROI/bet, which I’m quite happy about. 

Interestingly I find myself with a slight negative ROI on Bet365, which is the bookie where my sample size is the largest. In the beginning I ran extremely well on the lower English Leagues in the odds range from 3-6, where there tends to be a lot of edges on Bet365. But lately I’ve started running below EV here. Overall I’m running below the community average on Bet365, so I will expect this to even out as my sample size increases. I’ve had an incredible run on Nordicbet over 154 trades returning an ROI/trade of 16.6%. Some of the other bookies have higher ROIs, but this has the largest sample size so I find it to be the most impressive. 

Lessons learned

Some of the bookies have a lot more edges than others and one also starts to get a hang of which leagues the edges will occur in on the different bookies. Thus it is wise to distribute your bankroll unevenly across the bookies from the beginning as you want to limit the number of withdrawals you make. I currently have money in a couple of the bookies that I’m turning over less than 1 time per week. This money would be better spent if I had distributed it across new bookies, but I’m vary of making withdrawals unless I absolutely have to, because this could make them examine my account closer and profile me as a value bettor. 

Despite having cleared bonuses at Mobilbet, Nordicbet and Coolbet during this time I still have not been limited at any bookies since I started in October. While I was using Edgebet, I pretty much played any edge that appeared in the tradefeed and got limited at Marathonbet, Unibet and Betsson. On Trademate I’ve mainly been sticking to the recommended leagues and this seems to have played out well in terms of increasing my lifetime at each bookie, although it has had a negative impact on my total turnover. This is a tradeoff that I’m happy to make as my goal is to extract as much value as possible from each of the soft bookmakers. 

I started out by betting on recommended leagues only, but eventually I opened up my range a bit more on the softs where I was not been able to get a high volume of trades. If there are few edges on a bookie, then it becomes less important to both have money there and to stay unlimited as I can get a better return on investment elsewhere. Thus I set up a different preset for the lower volume bookies which included all leagues. I also opened this up to 2 hours before kick-off in case there were some really tempting edges that popped up. 

I started out by placing trades on edges all the way up to 18 in odds, where I made a cheeky punt on Malaga beating Barca earlier in the season. The game ended 0-0 so close, but no cigar. After looking through my stats with the analysis tool, I decided that I would drop the odds above 5, as it just takes to long for the variance to even out in the higher odds ranges. 

Going forward my goal is to keep doing a weekly episode of TradingEurope on Saturdays around 2pm UK time, you can watch me stream live on https://www.twitch.tv/tradingasia and you can find past episodes on our Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwb59a_gp2TmoeJgl6xTHOg/videos

TradingEurope: Week 7 Results (28.11.16 - 05.12.16)

Here are the results and stats for Week 7 of TradingEurope, where I trade on the softbooks. The run good has continued, but I only got in 76 trades this week. Going forward I'll be looking to bet more on non-recommended leagues on the softbooks, where I have not been able to get in much volume. 

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My Trades for the past week: