Stats and what I have learned from my first 1000 trades on TradingEurope

Yesterday TradingEurope passed 1000 trades. I currently find myself with a total profit of $3259 after 1006 trades. I’m about 2,5x EV, so the run good has kept up despite flattening out a bit over the last 300 trades, which was bound to happen at one point. The first 700 trades were pretty much done from October to December 2016. After I took over as the daily manager of Trademate I’ve had less time to trade, so my trades/week declined in the period from January until now, the 24th of February.

 Enlarge photo by clicking on it. — Overall stats

Enlarge photo by clicking on it. — Overall stats

Comments on my stats

My closing edge of 2,6% is ok, but not great. At the European bookmakers only one should be able to have a closing between 3-5%. My average time before kick-off is at 2 hours. Even though I keep my presets upon until a couple of hours before kick-off on recommended leagues, I still try to place my trades as close to kick-off as possible, when the markets are more settled. My average edge placed is at 2.95, which is fine as I’ve been taking a lot of edges in the range from 3-5, especially in the lower English Leagues. My avg. ROI/trade is at 8.1% while my flat ROI is at 5.4%, so using a proportional staking strategy has resulted in an additional 2.7% ROI/bet, which I’m quite happy about. 

Interestingly I find myself with a slight negative ROI on Bet365, which is the bookie where my sample size is the largest. In the beginning I ran extremely well on the lower English Leagues in the odds range from 3-6, where there tends to be a lot of edges on Bet365. But lately I’ve started running below EV here. Overall I’m running below the community average on Bet365, so I will expect this to even out as my sample size increases. I’ve had an incredible run on Nordicbet over 154 trades returning an ROI/trade of 16.6%. Some of the other bookies have higher ROIs, but this has the largest sample size so I find it to be the most impressive. 

Lessons learned

Some of the bookies have a lot more edges than others and one also starts to get a hang of which leagues the edges will occur in on the different bookies. Thus it is wise to distribute your bankroll unevenly across the bookies from the beginning as you want to limit the number of withdrawals you make. I currently have money in a couple of the bookies that I’m turning over less than 1 time per week. This money would be better spent if I had distributed it across new bookies, but I’m vary of making withdrawals unless I absolutely have to, because this could make them examine my account closer and profile me as a value bettor. 

Despite having cleared bonuses at Mobilbet, Nordicbet and Coolbet during this time I still have not been limited at any bookies since I started in October. While I was using Edgebet, I pretty much played any edge that appeared in the tradefeed and got limited at Marathonbet, Unibet and Betsson. On Trademate I’ve mainly been sticking to the recommended leagues and this seems to have played out well in terms of increasing my lifetime at each bookie, although it has had a negative impact on my total turnover. This is a tradeoff that I’m happy to make as my goal is to extract as much value as possible from each of the soft bookmakers. 

I started out by betting on recommended leagues only, but eventually I opened up my range a bit more on the softs where I was not been able to get a high volume of trades. If there are few edges on a bookie, then it becomes less important to both have money there and to stay unlimited as I can get a better return on investment elsewhere. Thus I set up a different preset for the lower volume bookies which included all leagues. I also opened this up to 2 hours before kick-off in case there were some really tempting edges that popped up. 

I started out by placing trades on edges all the way up to 18 in odds, where I made a cheeky punt on Malaga beating Barca earlier in the season. The game ended 0-0 so close, but no cigar. After looking through my stats with the analysis tool, I decided that I would drop the odds above 5, as it just takes to long for the variance to even out in the higher odds ranges. 

Going forward my goal is to keep doing a weekly episode of TradingEurope on Saturdays around 2pm UK time, you can watch me stream live on https://www.twitch.tv/tradingasia and you can find past episodes on our Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwb59a_gp2TmoeJgl6xTHOg/videos